Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid April 4, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated by May 7, 2026 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Maine’s drought continues with frozen soils north & widespread precipitation deficits hurting recovery. The short-term recovery in streamflow and groundwater is a temporary fluctuation rather than a reversal of the long term drought trend. Despite any minor improvements to drought classifications this spring, the outlooks suggest that the overall drought trajectory could worsen again in the warm season unless precipitation overperforms. Disclaimer: NWS Caribou Drought Information Statement updates will be made on a monthly basis due to the seasonal change, and may not match the weekly USDM. For more information visit link: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 46.15% D2 (Severe Drought): 52.61% D3 (Extreme Drought): 1.24% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northwest Aroostook, southern Penobscot, central & southern Hancock counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & southern Aroostook, central & southern Piscataquis, northern & central Penobscot, far northern Hancock & all of Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: No Areas. Drought Improved: No Areas. No Change: All of Maine. Short & Long Term Drought Index Link to the Maine Drought.gov Maps: www.drought.gov/states/maine The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. Short term drought conditions indicate improvements based on spring recharge. The Long-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current long-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 5 years. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. 30 Day Precipitation Precipitation has been slightly above normal across Northern Maine but mostly frozen precipitation. Slightly above normal precip in portions of the Downeast Coast. Precipitation was slightly below to well below normal in the rest of the forecast area. Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Precipitation Deficits Prolonged precipitation deficits for a year across much of the area. Worst deficits are in the St. Croix River Basin. Continued significant deficits since January 1, 2026. Link to Iowa State University IEM Since June 1, 2025 Since January 1, 2026 Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center 30 Day Temperatures 30 Day Temperatures have been running 1-3 degrees above normal. Temperatures near normal across the Eastern St. John Valley. Average temperatures above 32°F have been mainly from the Bangor Region to Downeast Coast. Average temperatures below 32°F have been across the Central Highlands to Northern Maine. https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Link to National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent Ground remains frozen mainly from the Central Highlands to the Aroostook/Washington County border and points northward. Bare Ground / Trace snowpack conditions exist in the Bangor Region to Downeast Maine. Snowpack is below normal across much of the area. The only “normal” snowpack conditions are in far Northern Maine across the Crown and in the St. John Valley to far Northeast Aroostook County. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts River flows are mainly “below normal” discharge values except “near normal” in the central areas of the forecast area. Ice continues to decay/rot in place across the rivers across Northern Maine, ice has flushed in remaining areas. USGS streamflow compared to historical streamflow. St. John, Allagash, Fish & Aroostook Rivers are ice covered therefore no statistics available. Aroostook River @ Washburn Taken: 4/1/2026 Aroostook River @ Washburn Taken: 4/1/2026 Groundwater The prolonged drought has left moisture deficit in the deeper soils. As the frost fully thaws, capillary action will draw moisture downward from the topsoil to fill these deeper voids, essentially robbing the surface layer of its recent gains. As of April 4th, ground frost was still present for all but Downeast areas and lower Penobscot Valley. The undergoing thawing which can occur rapidly once insulating snow is gone. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The short-term recovery in groundwater was a temporary fluctuation rather than a reversal of the long term drought trend. Note: Soil moisture estimates are more subjective in the winter when snow and ground frost are present. Groundwater Gage Plots USGS Groundwater Levels in New England: https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html There has been little recovery at Millinocket & Clayton Lake through the winter months. Any recovery this spring at Fort Kent, Calais, Hadley Lakes and Kenduskeag was short lived and groundwater worsening. https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal once frost has thawed. Snowfall melting during the day into unfrozen soils is ideal but snowpack is minimal in some locations. Ground frost remains in the northern ½ to ⅔ of the forecast area. Thawing will begin to increase with the increasing sun angle. While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as snow water equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Around 8” 210% of Normal Around 10” 260% of Normal Around 12” 280% of Normal Around 11” 140% of Normal Around 14” 175% of Normal Around 16” 195% of Normal https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the streamflows across the area remain “near normal” to “below normal” (USGS) Lakes & ponds, although ice covered, are near to below normal water levels. Dry Drinking Water Wells No new dry well reports in March but groundwater conditions are worsening. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Ice Impacts & Flood Threats Northern Rivers are 65-80% ice covered, with near normal to below normal flows. Ice is continuing to rot/decay in place with several openings/thinning areas. Limited Ice Jam Threat Mostly ice free in the Central Highlands, Baxter Region, Downeast and Bangor Regions. Ponds/lakes levels are low, exposing rocks. Flood Threat remains normal across Northern Maine & Moosehead Region. Below normal flood threat for the Central Highlands, Bangor Region & Downeast Maine. See the latest Winter/Spring Flood Outlook Here. Long Range Outlooks (April) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Mar 31, 2026 Main Takeaways for April: No significant signal for above/below temperatures in the state. Slight signals of above normal precipitation (snow or rain). Pattern Outlook Weak La Niña is continuing to weaken and return towards ENSO neutral. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns to control the forecast. The change to ENSO neutral will be significant enough to change the pattern. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Long Range Outlooks (April-June) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Mar 19, 2026. Main Takeaways for Feb-Apr: No strong signals of above or below normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Pattern Outlook Weak La Niña is continuing to weaken and return towards ENSO neutral. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns to control the forecast. The change to ENSO neutral will be significant enough to change the pattern. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html April Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Signals point to improvement near the Maine/Quebec border. Drought likely to persist in large portions of the area. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues possible due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Bottom Line: Categorical improvements may appear this month due to surface condition recovery, however long-term drought persistence is the favored outlook for the 2026 warm season. Full aquifer recovery is unlikely this spring. Groundwater trends continue to slowly worsen. Recent rain and snowmelt has saturated the top layer of soil, increased streamflows and reservoir levels, and slightly buoyed shallow groundwater levels. Outlook: Despite these improvements in water levels, the long-term prognosis remains concerning Spring recharge is on trajectory to finish below climatological normals, with the recharge window closing faster than usual due to early snow losses in the headwaters. The prolonged drought has left a severe moisture deficit in the deeper soils and groundwater. As the frost fully thaws, moisture will be drawn downward from the topsoil to fill these deeper voids, essentially robbing the surface layer of its recent gains. Once green-up occurs, plants will begin actively pumping water from the soil. This demand coupled with the deep-layer deficits could rapidly reduce topsoil moisture. Repeating wetting rains through spring will be vital to sustain soil moisture, otherwise evaporative losses will dominate. Stakeholders should prepare for a potential flash drought scenario where topsoil moisture dissipates rapidly once the canopy fills in. Long Term Drought Persistence is expected into the warm season. Required Contact Information Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Phone (public) (207) 492-0182 Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Disclaimer Updates to the Drought Information Statement will be made monthly, unless significant changes necessitate more frequent updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Drought conditions are less variable in the winter season due to dormant vegetation and frozen ground conditions. ! ! Useful Links https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car https://www.weather.gov/car/EMhome https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Required