Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid April 30, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated by May 7, 2026 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Maine’s drought improving slowly across Eastern & Northern Maine. Drought worsened slightly in portions of the Central Highlands. Despite any minor improvements to drought classifications this spring, the outlooks suggest that the overall drought trajectory could worsen again in the warm season unless precipitation overperforms. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 34.63% D1 (Moderate Drought): 38.23% D2 (Severe Drought): 27.14% D3 (Extreme Drought): 0% D4 (Exceptional Drought): 0% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Far southwest Penobscot county & far Southern Piscataquis county. D1 (Moderate Drought): Far Western Aroostook, Much of Piscataquis, Northern Somerset, Southern Penobscot, Southern & Central Hancock and Coastal Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Eastern Aroostook, Northern & North-Central Penobscot, Northern Hancock, Northern & Central Washington counties. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: Far Southwest Piscataquis County. Drought Improved: Large portions of the forecast area have seen 1-2 category changes. No Change: Portions of Piscataquis and Coastal Washington Counties. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Short & Long Term Drought Index Link to the Maine Drought.gov Maps: www.drought.gov/states/maine The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. Short term drought conditions indicate improvements based on spring recharge. The Long-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current long-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 5 years. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png 30 Day Precipitation Precipitation is above normal across Northern Maine to Moosehead Region and far Downeast Washington County. Below normal precipitation for southern Central Highlands, Greater Bangor region, Downeast into far Southern Aroostook county. Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Precipitation Deficits Prolonged precipitation deficits for a year across much of the area. Worst deficits are in the St. Croix River Basin. Continued significant deficits since January 1, 2026. Significant improvements across portions of the North Woods and western St. John Valley. Link to Iowa State University IEM Since June 1, 2025 Since January 1, 2026 Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center 30 Day Temperatures 30 Day Temperatures have been running 1-3 degrees above normal across much of Eastern/Northern Maine. Temperatures near to slightly below normal in the St. John Valley. https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Northern Basins: Normal across St. John River Basin except Below Normal on Aroostook River & Meduxnekeag River. Central Highlands, Moosehead & Baxter Regions: Below Normal to Much Below Normal. Downeast to Bangor Basins: Below Normal to Much Below Normal. Areawide Trends: Expect flows to rise slowly with widespread rainfall. Snip the state map via here: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/maine/ Groundwater Impacts Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved, but recent dry conditions have dried out the soils. This is typical until “green up” occurs. Deeper soil moisture down to near 40” has significantly improved. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater The prolonged drought has left a moisture deficit in the deeper soils across the Moosehead Region, Central Highlands, Baxter Region, Bangor Region into portions of Eastern Maine. Significant groundwater improvements have taken place across the North Woods, Much of Aroostook County and interior Downeast. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The short-term recovery in groundwater is a temporary fluctuation rather than a reversal of the long term drought trend. Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Gage Plots USGS Groundwater Levels in New England: https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html Significant groundwater improvements at many locations. There remains much below normal conditions across the Central Highlands and below normal in portions of the Downeast. Will need to monitor as “green up” occurs. https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. These values have ticked up slightly due to recent dry pattern during a period before “green up”. Around 6” 170% of Normal Around 9.5” 245% of Normal Around 11” 275% of Normal Around 9.5” 120% of Normal Around 13” 170% of Normal Around 15” 190% of Normal https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the streamflows across the area have fallen to “below normal” to “much below normal” due to recent dry conditions & early spring peak flows. (USGS) Lakes & ponds, are ranging from above normal to below normal water levels depending on locations. Fire Weather Wildfire activity remains elevated, and there have been a few larger fires. State-level burn bans have occurred and change with daily updates from the Maine Forest Service. Dry Drinking Water Wells No new dry well reports in April, will monitor as we approach “green up”. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Flood Threats Flood Threat remains below normal across all of Northern and Eastern Maine with near normal to below normal flows. See the latest Winter/Spring Flood Outlook Here. Fire Hazard Impacts Mostly low fire danger across the area with uptick in rainfall & cooler temperatures. Until “green up” occurs a few dry days can quickly create higher fire danger. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC November 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Unsettled weather pattern through next week, with multiple chances rainfall which will significantly improve streamflows and groundwater conditions. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 4/29 8PM to 5/07 8AM Valid 4/29 8PM to 5/07 8AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Long Range Outlooks (May) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways for May: No significant signal for above/below normal temperatures in the state. No significant signal for above/below normal precipitation in the state. Pattern Outlook ENSO Neutral conditions in place with an El Niño expected to develop as we approach Meteorological Summer. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns that control the forecast. May remains a transitional season so no significant signals for precipitation and temperatures. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Long Range Outlooks (May-July) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways for May-July: Weak signal for above normal temperatures in the state. No significant signal for above/below normal precipitation in the state. Pattern Outlook ENSO Neutral conditions in place with an El Niño expected to develop as we approach Meteorological Summer. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns that control the forecast. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues possible due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Bottom Line: Categorical improvements may appear until “green up” due to surface condition recovery, however long-term drought persistence is the favored outlook for the 2026 warm season. Full aquifer recovery is unlikely this spring. Groundwater trends continue to show improvement except in the Central Highlands which resulted in category lowering. Outlook: Despite these improvements in water levels, the long-term prognosis remains concerning. Once green-up occurs, plants will begin actively pumping water from the soil. This demand coupled with the deep-layer deficits could rapidly reduce topsoil moisture. Repeating wetting rains through May will be vital to sustain soil moisture, otherwise evaporative losses will dominate. Stakeholders should prepare for a potential flash drought scenario where topsoil moisture dissipates rapidly once the canopy fills in. Drought conditions could worsen quickly once the summer heat arrives. Long Term Drought Persistence is expected into the warm season. Required Contact Information Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Phone (public) (207) 492-0182 Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Useful Links https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car https://www.weather.gov/car/EMhome https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Required