Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid May 14, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This is the final update unless conditions worsen to D2 Severe Drought Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Significant improvements to Maine’s Groundwater Drought Continues. Much of Eastern & Northeastern Maine is seeing Normal to Above Normal Groundwater & Streamflow conditions We remain cautious drought could worsen again in the warm season unless precipitation continues to overperform. This is the final update unless conditions worsen to D2 Severe Drought U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought No Drought: 21.00% D0: (Abnormally Dry): 24.53% D1 (Moderate Drought): 43.48% D2 (Severe Drought): 10.99% Drought Intensity and Extent: D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of Piscataquis County, Southern Penobscot County and portions of coastal Downeast Maine. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Western Aroostook, Northeast Piscataquis, Central & Northern Penobscot, Much of Hancock and Eastern to Central Washington counties. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: None. Drought Improved: Large portions of the forecast area have seen 1-2 category changes. No Change: Portions of Piscataquis and Far Southwest Washington Counties. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Short & Long Term Drought Index Link to the Maine Drought.gov Maps: www.drought.gov/states/maine The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. Short term drought improvements thanks to recent rainfall. The Long-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current long-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 5 years. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png 7 Day Precipitation Precipitation is above normal across much of Northern & Eastern Maine with multiple recent rainfall. Slightly below normal precipitation in far Eastern Aroostook County near the New Brunswick border. Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps 30 Day Precipitation Precipitation is above normal for much of Eastern & Northern Maine. Near to slightly below normal precipitation in Northern Somerset and Northern Washington counties. Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Precipitation Deficits Increased precipitation across Northern Maine is improving rainfall deficits since last year. Significant deficits remain across much of Northern & Eastern Maine which are prolonging the ongoing groundwater drought. We want to monitor trends over the next couple months due to these deficits. Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center 30 Day Temperatures 30 Day Temperatures have been running 0.5-1.5 degrees below normal across much of Eastern/Northern Maine. Temperatures near to slightly above normal in eastern Washington County and portions of Northern Somerset County. https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps USGS State of Maine Dashboard: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/maine/ Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Northern Basins: Normal to slightly above normal flows Central Highlands, Moosehead & Baxter Regions: Normal flows Downeast to Bangor Basins: Normal flows except St. Croix Basin which is normal to slightly below normal. Areawide Trends: Expect flows to slowly fall. Snip the state map via here: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/maine/ Groundwater Impacts Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved significantly thanks to recent rains but just slightly dry due to last couple days. Shallow soil moisture changes frequently during the “green up” process. Deeper soil moisture down to near 40” has significantly improved thanks to recent rains. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 0-100cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater The prolonged drought has left a moisture deficit in the deeper soils across the Moosehead Region, portions of the Central Highlands into the Bangor Region but improvements continue.. Significant groundwater improvements have taken place across the North Woods, Much of Aroostook County into the Eastern Downeast resulting in near to slightly above normal moisture. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The short-term recovery in groundwater is a temporary fluctuation rather than a reversal of the long term drought trend. Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Gage Plots USGS Groundwater Levels in New England: https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html Significant groundwater improvements at most locations. There remains much below normal conditions across the Central Highlands but the recharge is continuing (positive sign). https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. These values have fallen significantly due to recent rainfall before “green up”. Around 6” 135% of Normal Around 9” 215% of Normal Around 10” 260% of Normal Around 9” 110% of Normal Around 12” 150% of Normal Around 13” 170% of Normal https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the streamflows across the area have increased to “normal” conditions due to recent rainfall. Below normal conditions except in the St. Croix Basin. (USGS) Fire Weather Rapid “green up” is underway, recent significant rainfall is helping limit wildfire activity Dry Drinking Water Wells No new dry well reports in April, will monitor as we approach “green up”. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Flood Threats Flood Threat remains below normal across all of Northern and Eastern Maine with near normal to below normal flows. See the latest Winter/Spring Flood Outlook Here. Fire Hazard Impacts Mostly low fire danger across the area with uptick in rainfall & cooler temperatures. Until “green up” occurs a few dry days can quickly create higher fire danger. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC November 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No significant rainfall expected over the next 7 days but some light precipitation is expected. Valid 5/13 8PM to 5/21 8AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Valid Dec 2 to Dec 8. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Moderate signal of below normal temperatures expected. A weak to moderate signal for wetter than average precipitation (rain or snow). Possible Impact This outlook indicates a potential trend toward improving drought conditions. Freeze-up is expected soon and it is unlikely the drought will be over before then. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png Long Range Outlooks (May) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways for May: No significant signal for above/below normal temperatures in the state. No significant signal for above/below normal precipitation in the state. Pattern Outlook ENSO Neutral conditions in place with an El Niño expected to develop as we approach Meteorological Summer. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns that control the forecast. May remains a transitional season so no significant signals for precipitation and temperatures. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Long Range Outlooks (May-July) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways for May-July: Weak signal for above normal temperatures in the state. No significant signal for above/below normal precipitation in the state. Pattern Outlook ENSO Neutral conditions in place with an El Niño expected to develop as we approach Meteorological Summer. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns that control the forecast. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html April Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Signals point to improvement near the Maine/Quebec border. Drought likely to persist in large portions of the area. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues possible due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Bottom Line: Significant improvements continue through “green up” due to significant recovery in much of Eastern/Northern Maine, however long-term drought persistence in western areas of our forecast area. Full aquifer recovery is unlikely this spring in western half of the forecast area. Full aquifer recovery is likely this spring in eastern half of the forecast area. Groundwater trends continue to show significant improvement. Outlook: Despite these improvements in water levels, the long-term prognosis remains concerning. Once green-up occurs, plants will begin actively pumping water from the soil. This demand coupled with the deep-layer deficits could rapidly reduce topsoil moisture. Repeating wetting rains through May will be vital to sustain soil moisture, otherwise evaporative losses will dominate. Stakeholders should prepare for a potential flash drought scenario where topsoil moisture dissipates rapidly once the canopy fills in. Drought conditions could worsen quickly once the summer heat arrives. Long Term Drought Persistence is expected into the warm season in portions of the forecast area. Required Contact Information Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Phone (public) (207) 492-0182 Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Useful Links https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car https://www.weather.gov/car/EMhome https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ This is the final update unless conditions worsen to D2 Severe Drought Required