================================================================================ SLIDE 1: OVERVIEW AND CURRENT SITUATION Key Points: Groundwater and streamflows are continuing to worsen across Northern and Eastern Maine. This degradation is leading to the expansion of Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) Drought conditions. Below to Much Below Normal groundwater and streamflow conditions are widespread. Drought persistence is fully expected to continue into the fall season. ================================================================================ SLIDE 2: DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT Current Drought Classifications (Maine): D2 (Severe Drought) - 8.95% of state: Far Southern Penobscot and Far Southwest Hancock counties. D1 (Moderate Drought) - 52.18% of state: Central/Southern Aroostook, much of Piscataquis and Penobscot, Eastern/Northern Hancock, and Northern/Eastern Washington counties. D0 (Abnormally Dry) - 32.26% of state: Northern Somerset, Western/Northern/NE Aroostook, and Southern Washington counties. No Drought - 6.61% of state. Recent Changes (4-Week): Drought conditions have worsened across nearly the entire forecast area. There have been no areas of improvement. ================================================================================ SLIDE 3: PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE Precipitation Deficits: 14-Day & 30-Day: Precipitation is well below normal across much of Northern & Eastern Maine. Rainfall has been highly isolated. 2026 deficits are compounding the lingering deficits from the 2025 drought. While Northern Maine is at 90-100% of normal year-to-date, this is only allowing for a slow worsening rather than recovery. Temperatures: The last 30 days have seen temperatures running 1 to 2.5 degrees above normal. Warm temperatures combined with a lack of rainfall are causing increased evaporation and placing significant demand on the water system during the growing season. ================================================================================ SLIDE 4: HYDROLOGIC AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS Hydrologic Status: Northern Basins, Central Highlands, Moosehead, Baxter, Downeast, and Bangor basins are all experiencing Below to Much Below Normal flows. The St. Croix River is the only notable exception, showing normal flows. Streamflows are expected to continue falling. Soil Moisture & Groundwater: Near-surface soil moisture remains very dry; recent isolated rainfall has evaporated quickly. Deeper soil moisture (down to 39 inches and up to 79 inches) has worsened rapidly through the summer. Groundwater gauges indicate high water system demand. Because the region never fully recovered from the 2025-26 drought, multiple monitoring locations are reporting conditions at or near record lows (e.g., Millinocket, Fort Kent). ================================================================================ SLIDE 5: RAINFALL NEEDED TO END DROUGHT Estimated Rainfall Required: 1 Month: ~7 inches (190% of normal) 2 Months: ~9-11 inches (135-240% of normal) 3 Months: ~13-14 inches (155-160% of normal) Ideal Conditions: Steady, light rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Current values have increased significantly due to dependence on localized showers and thunderstorms, which produce high runoff but low absorption. ================================================================================ SLIDE 6: DROUGHT IMPACTS Hydrologic: Widespread drops in regional streamflows, lake levels, seasonal wetlands, and reservoirs. Below-normal lakes and ponds are exposing rocks, threatening recreational activities. Aquifer & Drinking Water: Substantial lingering storage deficits due to lagging groundwater recharge. A few new dry drinking water wells reported in August; ongoing monitoring by Maine EMA. Agricultural: Reduced soil moisture has forced farmers to expand irrigation. Visible moisture stress in apple orchards and blueberry fields; stunted field corn; wilting gardens. Premature leaf drop in some maples and wild apple trees. Pasture growth stalled, forcing early supplemental hay feeding for dairy producers. Rural communities hauling water for livestock. ================================================================================ SLIDE 7: OUTLOOK AND EL NINO Short to Medium Range (September - November): No strong signal for temperature or precipitation in September. Weak signal for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the fall (Sep-Nov). El Nino Status: El Nino is strengthening, with a >90% chance of a very strong event during Fall/Winter 2026-27. Historically, Strong/Very Strong El Nino events bring above-normal winter temperatures and precipitation to Maine. This often results in more rain or freezing rain events, frequent melting of snowpack, and robust surface water replenishment. Net Outlook: Despite potential for deficient seasonal snowpack, this pattern is often favorable for reducing drought over the winter. ================================================================================ SLIDE 8: SUMMARY AND TAKEAWAYS Drought continues to worsen across Eastern and Northern Maine with no immediate improvements expected. Full aquifer recovery is unlikely until Winter 2026 or Spring 2027. Stakeholders must prepare for worsening conditions this fall. Repeating, light wetting rains are vital to improve soil moisture. The strong El Nino outlook provides long-term hope for recharge this upcoming winter. Please submit condition monitoring observer reports (CMOR) to help track local impacts.