--- Page 1 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid September 3, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME ● Next update by Thursday, September 17th unless conditions warrant sooner ● Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. ● Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. ● Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. ● Although rainfall is occurring, the groundwater and streamflows continue to worsen across the region leading to the expansion of Moderate & Severe Drought ● Much of Eastern & Northern Maine is seeing Below to Much Below Normal Groundwater & Streamflow conditions ● Drought persistence expected into the fall --- Page 2 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought ○ No Drought: 4.03% ○ D0: (Abnormally Dry): 22.41% ○ D1 (Moderate Drought): 59.84% ○ D2 (Severe Drought): 13.73% ● Drought Intensity and Extent: ○ D2 (Severe Drought): Far Southern Penobscot, Southwest Hancock counties. ○ D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of Aroostook, All of Piscataquis, Much of Penobscot, Eastern & Northern Hancock and Northern & Eastern Washington counties. ○ D0: (Abnormally Dry): Far Northern & Northeast Aroostook and South-Central Washington counties. --- Page 3 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 2-week change map for Northeast U.S. ● Two week drought monitor class change: ○ Drought Worsened: Several locations in Aroostook, Northern Piscataquis and Northern Penobscot counties. Additional worsening in Southern Penobscot, Southwest Hancock and far Southwest Washington counties. ○ Drought Improved: None. ○ No Change: Rest of the forecast area. --- Page 4 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for Northeast U.S. ● Four week drought monitor class change: ○ Drought Worsened: Nearly the entire forecast area. ○ Drought Improved: None. ○ No Change: Small areas of Washington and Hancock counties. --- Page 5 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Short & Long Term Drought Index Link to the Maine Drought.gov Maps: www.drought.gov/states/maine ● The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. ● Continued worsening of groundwater & surface water conditions. ● The Long-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current long-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 5 years. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. --- Page 6 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service 14 Day Precipitation ● Precipitation is much below normal across much of Northern & Eastern Maine with much of the rainfall just isolated to scattered in nature. ● Near to slightly above normal precipitation in very isolated areas of extreme eastern Downeast Maine. Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center --- Page 7 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service 30 Day Precipitation ● Precipitation is below normal across much of Northern & Eastern Maine with much of the rainfall just scattered showers and thunderstorms the last 30 days. ● Slightly above normal precipitation in very isolated areas of Downeast & Northern Maine thanks to isolated convection. Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center --- Page 8 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Precipitation Deficits ● 2026 precipitation deficits compounding the deficits from the 2025 Drought in much of the area. ● Northern Maine is running 90-100% of normal precipitation values for 2026. This explains why there is a slower degradation of the ongoing dry conditions for the north, compared to other regions. Much of the area is seeing compounding drought impacts. --- Page 9 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Precipitation Deficits City Precipitation Since Jan 1st Departure from Normal since Jan 1st Jun 1 - Aug 31 Precipitation Jun 1 - Aug 31 Precipitation Departure Water Year to Date Oct 1, 2025 - Aug 31, 2026 Water Year to Date Departure Oct 1, 2025 - Aug 31, 2026 Caribou 28.30” +1.75” 12.30” +0.57” 37.54” +0.28” Houlton 18.54” -6.53” 7.26” -3.93” 4th Driest on Record (Since 1948) 26.90” -8.98” Millinocket 23.77” -3.35” 10.73” -1.43” 33.61” -5.38 Bangor 17.66” -8.38” 5.44” -4.65” Tied 4th Driest on Record (Since 1926) 26.48” -11.47 --- Page 10 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center 30 Day Temperatures ● 30 Day Temperatures have been running 1-2.5 degrees above normal across much of Eastern/Northern Maine. ● Warm temperatures + lack of rainfall causing increased evaporation and in growing season causing significant demand on the water system. --- Page 11 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service USGS Streamflow State of Maine Dashboard: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/maine/ Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts ● Northern Basins: ○ Below to Much Below Normal flows ■ 13 of 14 gages Below Normal or worse ● Central Highlands, Moosehead & Baxter Regions: ○ Below to Much Below Normal flows ■ 12 of 15 gages Below Normal or worse ● Downeast to Bangor Basins: ○ Below to Much Below Normal flows ■ 6 of 9 gages Below Normal or worse ● Areawide Trends: ○ Expect flows to remain below normal. --- Page 12 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Groundwater Impacts ● Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has continued to struggle and remains very dry. Minor areas of near normal Downeast and Moosehead Region. ● Deeper soil moisture down to near 39” has worsened rapidly through the summer growing season. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 0-100cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal --- Page 13 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Groundwater ● The 2025-26 Drought that did improve in the late spring only improved enough to lower drought conditions. Deeper moisture only improved slightly, but is being taxed heavily in the 2026 growing season combined with rainfall deficits in July and August 2026. This is leading to the well below normal groundwater conditions. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” --- Page 14 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Groundwater Gage Plots USGS Groundwater Levels in New England: https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html Groundwater gage data indicates high water system demand due to the growing season, compounded by a failure to fully recover from the 2025-26 drought. Consequently, multiple locations are currently reporting conditions at or near record lows. September is typically our driest time of the year. So monthly stats are lower. --- Page 15 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” ● Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. ● These values have decreased slightly due to recent light rainfall and the expected gradual reduction in demand as the growing season ends. Around 7.5” 185% of Normal Around 10” 225% of Normal Around 11.5” 250% of Normal Around 11” 135% of Normal Around 14” 150% of Normal Around 15.5” 160% of Normal --- Page 16 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts ● Regional streamflows, lake levels, seasonal wetlands, and storage reservoirs are experiencing widespread drops due to a combination of seasonal midsummer drawdown, diminished surface runoff, and heightened water demand. ● Lakes/ponds running below normal exposing rocks posing threats to recreational activities. Aquifer Deficits ● Groundwater recharge continues to lag across the region, maintaining significant, lingering storage deficits. Multiple monitoring wells across Eastern/Northern Maine are currently reading Below Normal to Much Below Normal compared to historical climatological baselines. Low water tables are compounded by multi-year precipitation deficits and depleted baseline levels carried over from previous dry seasons. Dry Drinking Water Wells ● A few new dry well reports; will monitor as conditions worsen. ● Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Agricultural Impacts ● Reduced soil moisture has forced farmers to expand irrigation. Apple orchards and blueberry fields have reportedly shown visible moisture stress, field corn exhibits stunted growth, and perennial gardens are wilting. Severe dryness is triggering premature leaf drop in some maples and wild apple trees. Pasture growth has stalled in many areas, forcing dairy producers to begin supplemental hay feeding ahead of schedule. Agricultural and rural communities are actively mitigating water shortages by hauling water for livestock, curtailing non-essential outdoor and indoor water use, and managing low or dry domestic and agricultural wells. Mitigation Actions ● Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. --- Page 17 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Long Range Outlooks (September) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways for September: ● No significant signal for above/below normal temperatures in the state. ● No significant signal for above/below normal precipitation in the state. Pattern Outlook ● El Niño is continuing to strengthen but uncertainty remains on the subseasonal pattern influences in September. This is concerning given our ongoing dry conditions. --- Page 18 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Long Range Outlooks (Sept-Nov) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways for Sept-Nov: ● Weak signal for above normal temperatures in the state. ● Weak signal for below normal precipitation in the state. Pattern Outlook ● El Niño is continuing to strengthen but uncertainty remains on the subseasonal pattern influences this fall. This is concerning signals given our ongoing dry conditions. --- Page 19 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Net Drought Outlook: Even with expectations of a deficient seasonal snowpack, the net hydrologic impact is often favorable for reducing drought. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. The CPC Official ENSO outlook indicates there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. Historical Winter Impacts in Maine Strong to Very Strong events historically deliver above-normal winter temperatures and precipitation: Storm Type & Precipitation ● Higher proportion of winter storms produce rain/sleet/freezing rain rather than long-lasting dry snow, particularly in coastal and southern areas. Repeated Snowpack Melt ● Periods of mild temperatures between weather systems often cause existing snowpack to melt repeatedly throughout the season. Runoff & Hydrologic Recharge ● Frequent runoff events favor robust surface water replenishment (lakes, reservoirs, streamflows), while shallow ground frost aids deep groundwater recharge. Northern Maine deep frost prevents recharge. --- Page 20 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Main Takeaways ● Bottom Line: drought continues to worsen across Eastern and Northern Maine with no significant improvements expected. Short term rainfall likely to help groundwater, although short lived. ○ Full aquifer recovery is unlikely until Winter 2026 / Spring 2027. ● Groundwater trends continue to show significant worsening. ● Outlook: Long-term prognosis remains concerning, but a strong El Niño Winter is hopeful. ○ Will need to monitor trends for fire danger, drinking water supplies and surface water conditions. ● Repeating light wetting rains will be vital to improve soil moisture, otherwise evaporative losses will dominate. ● Stakeholders should prepare for worsening drought conditions this fall. ● Note: Groundwater & streamflow levels reach climatological minimums in September. --- Page 21 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) ● Condition Monitoring Observer Reports on Drought (CMOR-Drought) is a tool provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). ● Submit reports here: https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObse rvations.aspx ● The tool allows citizen scientists to submit observation reports relating to drought, which are presented in a map that can be used to view and access submitted information and attachments. These reports are vital for determining the drought conditions. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/016ac3b48c5049909106a23e6556311b --- Page 22 --- National Weather Service 1:15 PM EDT September 3, 2026 Caribou, ME National Weather Service Contact Information Contact Information Web ➔ www.weather.gov/car Phone (public) ➔ (207) 492-0182 Questions? Email ➔ nws.caribou@noaa.gov ➔ james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Useful Links ● https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements ● https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement ● https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car ● https://www.weather.gov/car/EMhome ● https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/