Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid September 25, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated October 2, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Drought worsens across the Central Highlands and Downeast Maine Abnormally Dry Conditions and Moderate Drought expands North U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Drought Intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Southern Hancock & far southwest Washington counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Much of Washington, northern Hancock, southern & central Penobscot and southern Piscataquis counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Southeast Aroostook, small portion of central Penobscot, central Piscataquis counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northern Washington counties along with the rest of Aroostook County. Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 28.08% D1 (Moderate Drought): 12.41% D2 (Severe Drought): 46.95% D3 (Extreme Drought): 12.56% Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: Much of Eastern and Central Maine. Dry Conditions Worsened: Large portions of Northern Maine. No Change: Far Downeast and portions of the Baxter Region to NE Aroostook County. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation Continued dry conditions over the last 30 days with the only above normal rainfall from Kennebec Valley to Baxter State Park region. Only a couple of small areas had a surplus, with most of the state running 15 to 70% of normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day trends have featured near normal to slightly above normal temperatures across much of the area. 30 day trends have been near normal for most locations. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of streamflows across the service area continue to remain within the “Below” to “Much Below Normal” percentiles. (USGS) A few sites approaching record low flows for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Remaining harvest underway; crop losses due to ongoing drought conditions. Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has been above average in Maine since August. Wildfires have been burning actively at night, burning deep into the ground, and completely consuming larger fuels, all indicative of dry conditions. Vegetation is showing signs of drought stress. Other Impacts Dry wells can occur during periods of drought and have been reported over the past few weeks. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water, practice fire prevention and follow directions from local officials. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Majority of the stream flows across the southern, eastern & central service area remain in the “below normal” or “much below normal” categories. A few locations are now at record low flows for this time of year. Only a few isolated spots are within the “normal” category. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are below normal across Northern Maine. As the influence from previous rainfall dries up. Soil moisture is significantly below normal in the Central Highlands, Downeast Maine, Bangor Region & Southern Aroostook County. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: ~4” to ~16” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Impacts Significant impacts to deeper soil moisture conditions with several groundwater gauges below normal. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 100-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: ~40” to ~79” Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Fire Hazard Impacts Moderate fire danger statewide as rainfall & cooler temps have developed. Precipitation in the near term will tamper fire weather concerns for a few days. Dry and windy weather will worsen drying conditions next week. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC September 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Low pressure tracks through the state tonight into tomorrow with rainfall. Drier weather returns for the weekend into next week with breezy northwest winds. Next 7 days features widespread beneficial wetting rains but no drought busting rains. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 09/25 8AM to 10/2 8AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid Sep 18 to 24. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Stronger signal of above normal temperatures expected. Weak signal of Precipitation being slightly below normal. Possible Impact Without above average rainfall, precipitation deficit will persist. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center October Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center October Precipitation Outlook. Valid Oct 2025. Main Takeaways for the Next Month: Strong signal for Above Normal temperatures. No strong signals for either wetter or drier than average precipitation. Possible Impact High uncertainty on precipitation does not indicate a trend toward drought improvement. This may impact the fall fire weather season as leaves begin to fall. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought this month. Downeast coast expected to have drought removal by end of the 3-month seasonal outlook. Possible Impact Potential for some improved conditions in drought heavy areas in the next few months. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways The drought was driven by periods of hot temperatures in July and August, during which time less than 50% of normal rainfall was observed. Drought worsened with below normal rainfall in September. Above normal temperatures during this period increased evapotranspiration, depleting soil moisture rapidly. These conditions occurring during the peak growing season are responsible for crop and forest stress. Additional impacts include but not limited to declining streamflows, lake levels, and groundwater. The latest forecast and outlooks going forward favor limited opportunities for relief through October. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov Required