Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid October 16, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated October 23, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Drought levels maintained across the state from last week Moderate to Extreme Drought now covers the entire state U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Drought Intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Hancock, Washington, & southern Penobscot counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Central Piscataquis, Penobscot & southern Aroostook counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Northern Maine, including northern Piscataquis, Penobscot and Aroostook counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas are abnormally dry at this point in time. Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 26.63% D2 (Severe Drought): 39.77% D3 (Extreme Drought): 33.60% Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: Northern Maine, Interior and Coastal Downeast, and Bangor Area. No Change: Central Highlands. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation A couple of rainfall events have raised precipitation totals over the area, with most areas seeing between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall. However, overall conditions are still running low, with most of the region running between 25% to 70% of normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends have been slightly below normal across much of the area. 30 day trends are only slightly warmer than normal for most locations. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of streamflows across the service area continue to remain within the “Below” to “Much Below Normal” percentiles. (USGS) Some sites have reached record low flows for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Remaining harvest underway; ~30% crop losses due to ongoing drought conditions according to https://moderator.droughtreporter.unl.edu/RSSfeed/ImpactView/60476 Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has been above average in Maine since August. Seasonal leaf fall continues; leaf litter is extremely dry. Other Impacts Dry wells can occur during periods of drought and have been reported over the past few weeks. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water, practice fire prevention and follow directions from local officials. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Majority of the stream flows northern Maine remain in the “below normal” or “much below normal” categories. A few locations are now at record low flows for this time of year. Only a few isolated spots are within the “normal” category. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me Agricultural Impacts Surface soil moisture across northeastern Maine has dropped due to crop harvest leaving bare fields. This is reflected at a slightly lower depth as well. Soil moisture across Downeast Maine has improved, but continues to be below normal. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: ~4” to ~16” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Impacts Significant impacts to deeper soil moisture conditions continue, with most groundwater gauges below normal. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 100-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: ~40” to ~79” Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Fire Hazard Impacts Mostly Moderate fire danger across the north as recent rainfall has improved conditions slightly. Sunny conditions over the weekend could dry fuels out more, however the lowering sun angle has less influence in mid-late fall. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC October 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Dry conditions expected through the weekend. A change for a rainier pattern at the beginning of next week has the potential to bring more widespread rainfall. This will help improve the drought, but there is still uncertainty about how much rain to expect. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 10/8 8AM to 10/15 8AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid Oct 15 to 21. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Stronger signal of above normal temperatures expected. A slight signal for wetter than average precipitation. Possible Impact This outlook indicates a trend toward improving conditions. However, how warm the temperatures are is a factor that may increase evaporation. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center October Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center October Precipitation Outlook. Valid Oct 2025. Main Takeaways for the Next Month: Strong signal for Above Normal temperatures. No strong signals for either wetter or drier than average precipitation. Possible Impact High uncertainty on precipitation does not indicate a long term trend toward drought improvement. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought this month. Downeast coast expected to have drought removal by end of the 3-month seasonal outlook. Possible Impact Potential for some improved conditions in drought heavy areas in the next few months. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Drought conditions have stayed the same since last week. All of Northern Maine is experiencing some level of drought. A trend toward cooler temperatures and some rainfall has prevented drought conditions from worsening through mid-October. Reduced harvest yields are expected to continue through the rest of the harvest season. Additional impacts include, but not limited to, declining streamflows, lake levels, and groundwater. Next week will trend towards a warmer/rainier pattern. Uncertainty is still moderate to high on how much rainfall can be expected. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov Required