Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid December 5, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated January 8, 2026 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Maine’s drought to persist over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Very little recovery in Downeast Maine Disclaimer: Starting 12/5/2025, NWS Caribou Drought Information Statement updates will be made on a monthly basis due to the seasonal change, and may not match the weekly USDM. For more information visit link: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 36.55% D2 (Severe Drought): 60.38% D3 (Extreme Drought): 3.07% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northern Aroostook, southern Penobscot, central & southern Hancock & far western Washington counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & southern Aroostook, central & southern Piscataquis, northern & central Penobscot, far northern Hancock & much of Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: Far North Woods in northwest Aroostook County. Drought Improved: Downeast, Southern Penobscot River region, portions of the Central Highlands to northern Baxter Region & Eastern Aroostook. No Change: Rest of the North Woods to eastern St. John Valley, much of the Baxter Region into southern Aroostook County. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation We have seen some rainfall & snowfall, but precipitation over the last 30 days has been below normal (50-80% range). Much of the northern half of the state has seen snowfall with little liquid content. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends are generally well below normal by 2-5 degrees 30 day trends are generally 1-2 degrees below normal. Near normal for a small area near Allagash to Fort Kent. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Link to National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent Ground is freezing in much of northern & north-central Maine. Ground remains thawed in Downeast areas. Although accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system if the ground is thawed. Manually made in GraphiDSS CAR NOHRSC Database Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts 7 day river flows have degraded back to “below normal” to “much below normal” discharge values. Ice in the Aroostook River basin is the reason for no ranking. The Piscataquis & Fish River basins are the only “normal” conditions. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me Groundwater Impacts Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved, and is now at or above normal. Deeper soil moisture continues to be significantly below normal in the Bangor region, Downeast, northern Maine and Central Highlands. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal >This indicator will be less relevant heading into winter as the ground freezes. Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Impacts Deep layer moisture continues to be “below” to “much below normal” as it takes time for recent events to percolate through the soil. Drinking water wells continue to be dry. No significant improvements yet. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The Greatest Drought Concern through the winter months for Drinking Water Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” 245-305% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes (very unlikely). Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Snowfall melting during the day into unfrozen soils is ideal. 7-12” of liquid precipitation is needed to see full recovery before the ground freezes. Ground frost in Maine has started across northern regions and higher elevations, and ground freeze expected in mid December in southern areas, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4”. While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as snow water equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Around 7” 245% of Normal Around 10” 303% of Normal Around 12” 307% of Normal https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the monthly streamflows across the service area have gone down to “below normal” in the past 7 days; a few in Central Highlands and Bangor region are still near normal. (USGS) Lakes & ponds are slowly returning to near normal but most remain below normal. Dry Drinking Water Wells Dry well reports continue, most of these occurring in Bangor Region and Downeast Maine. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Some improvement has been reported in the last week for groundwater levels in eastern Downeast areas and eastern Aroostook county. Very little groundwater improvement in western Downeast areas, Bangor region, Baxter region and North Woods. Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Winter Ice Impacts Ice is developing across much of the rivers in northern & north-central Maine due to recent cold weather. Increasing potential of “anchor ice” forming in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. Ponds/lakes levels low with ice formation exposing rocks posing risk to recreational activities. Winter Drought Considerations Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Overview: Maine’s drought is likely to persists over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical so it can be locked-in and saved for spring. There is some potential for rainfall as an active pattern through mid December favors mixed precipitation events tracking into the region. If the snowpack in December remains or grows, it can act as an insulator, limiting deeper frost depths . Once the ground freezes, water infiltration becomes difficult regardless of winter rainfall or snowmelt. Winter is the driest time of the year since cold air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Monthly precipitation averages drop to 2-3 inches both January and February. Looking ahead to Spring: A snowpack through winter is crucial to act as a natural water reservoir, as spring snowmelt helps recharge soil and aquifers. Below-normal snowfall could extend the drought and impact agriculture in 2026. The timing and rate of snowmelt will be vital to sustaining base flow in rivers and lakes the next warm season. Even an active spring flood season can be insufficient to fully recharge aquifers in severe drought conditions. Long Range Outlooks (Dec-Feb) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Nov 20, 2025. Main Takeaways for Winter 2025-26: No strong signals for Below Normal or Above Normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Winter Pattern Outlook Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. Analog years point to a volatile pattern with periods of wild temperature swings and an active storm track. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of drought is expected to persist into the 2025-26 winter. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues continuing due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought conditions continue across northern and eastern Maine, with very little improvements in most locations. Impacts include, but are not limited to: Dry drinking water wells, low lake/pond and river/stream levels and dried marshlands. 7-12 inches of rainfall, roughly 245-305% of normal, is needed between now and when the ground freezes (already freezing in northern Maine). Otherwise, drought will linger throughout the winter. Accumulating snow can be beneficial to drought by insulating the ground before it has a chance to freeze; plus it stores water that can melt and contribute to groundwater recharge. The severity of the ongoing drought indicates long-term drought conditions persisting into the 2025-26 winter. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Disclaimer Updates to the Drought Information Statement will be made monthly, unless significant changes necessitate more frequent updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Drought conditions are less variable in the winter season due to dormant vegetation and frozen ground conditions. ! ! Required