Winter/Spring Flood Outlook #4
Northern & Eastern Maine
OVERVIEW:
The Flood Outlook due to Natural Flows is Below Normal for Northern and Eastern Maine
The Flood Outlook due to Ice Jams is Below Normal for Northern and Eastern Maine
SNOWPACK (SD) &
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE)

“T” = Trace
Northern Basins: SDs 10-20” w/ higher amounts up to 28”. SWEs 2-4” w/ isolated higher amounts to 5”. SD below normal & SWE near normal to below normal.
Central Highlands, Moosehead & Baxter Regions: SDs 7-18” w/ isolated higher amounts up to 3ft. Chimney Pond (Baxter SP @ 2971ft) SD is 34”. SWEs generally 2-3” with amounts 4-5” at highest terrain. SD & SWE below normal.
Downeast to Bangor Basins: SDs generally 8-16” w/ isolated higher amounts in the higher terrain to 20”. SWEs 2-3”. SD & SWE near normal to below normal.
RIVER ICE
Northern Basins: 98% ice cover in the St. John & Aroostook Basins. Very few openings. Ice thickness 14-20” w/ isolated up to 30”. Ice is grey ice.
Central Highlands, Moosehead & Baxter Regions: 90-95% ice cover in the Penobscot & Piscataquis Basins w/ exception near & downstream of dam/mill discharges. Ice thickness 10-20” w/ isolated up to 30” in head ponds of dams. Downeast to Bangor Basins: 90-95% ice cover. Ice thickness 10-20”. Highest ice coverage in upper stretches of St. Croix, Machias & Narraguagus Rivers.
PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Temperatures: Slightly Above Normal. Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal.
Pattern: Initially, this outlook features a more zonal pattern with a stronger jet stream positioned near New England, allowing progressive systems to ride the jet. Moving into the second half of the period, strong signals point to the return of deep long-wave troughing in the East, bringing reinforcing shots of cold air.
RIVER FLOW STATUS
Flows are Below Normal to Near Normal. Will continue to remain steady.
FROST DEPTH
Northern Basins: 20-30” Deep, Central & Downeast: 4-16” Deep.
GROUNDWATER
Below Normal to Well Below Normal due to ongoing Moderate to Severe Drought. 
Valid Feb 19th - Mar 5th  
St. John & Allagash River Confluence @ Allagash
Courtesy: Sean Melanson - NWS Caribou
Taken: 2/16/2026
St. John River in T8 R17
Taken: 1/15/2026
Courtesy: NOAA OMAO
Please Report River Ice Conditions
via Social Media or email us at nws.caribou@noaa.gov
Aroostook River @ Oxbow
Courtesy: Matt Strauser - NWS Caribou
Taken: 2/16/2026
Penobscot River @ Old Town
Courtesy: Tom Mercier
Taken: 2/6/2026