Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for Central Pennsylvania 
Valid: February 13, 2026
Issued by: WFO State College
Contact Information: ctp.stormreports@noaa.gov
Next update due by February 20, 2026
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.
The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across central Pennsylvania.

30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
Both 30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures have been below to well average across central Pennsylvania.

Latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE):
Central Pennsylvania had snow water equivalent ranging from around a half an inch in portions of south-central Pennsylvania up to two and a half inches across portions of the northern and western highlands as of February 12, 2025. This is above average snow-water equivalent for mid-February.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows are generally running below to well below average across most of central Pennsylvania as of February 12, 2025. (Note that the streamflows from many gages are currently missing due to ice effects on many area rivers and streams.)

Soil Moisture Conditions:
As of February 11, 2025, soil moisture conditions were below to well below average across central Pennsylvania.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
The 7-Day quantitative precipitation forecast ranges from a tenth to a half an inch across central Pennsylvania, with the higher-end amounts forecast across the northern and western highlands. This is below average.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
The 8-14 day forecast for the week of February 19-25, 2026 calls for a trend towards above average temperatures and above average precipitation across central Pennsylvania. The latest 6-10 Day , 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability):
Most of central Pennsylvania's river forecast points have less than a 25% chance of reaching flood stage this Spring. The only exception is the points on the Swatara Creek (Harper Tavern, Hershey, and Middletown), which have a 25 percent to a 50 percent chance of exceeding minor flood stage this Spring. Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points.

Flood Outlook Summary
Current and expected conditions:

Recent precipitation:		30-day & 60-day below to well below average
Snow conditions:		Above average
River Ice:			Above average
Streamflow Conditions:		Below to well below average
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Below to well below average
Groundwater:			Below to well below average
Reservoir Conditions:		Below to well below average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Below average next 7 days,  followed by above average for the 8-14 day period

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across central Pennsylvania.

Next update by: February 20, 2026