Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for 
Central Pennsylvania 
Valid February 18, 2026
Issued by: WFO State College
Contact Information: ctp.stormreports@noaa.gov
Next update due by March 6, 2026
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across central Pennsylvania.

30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30-day and 60-day precipitation departures are both showing below to well below average precipitation across central Pennsylvania.

Latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE):
Central Pennsylvania had snow water equivalent (SWE) ranging from little if any in some south-central valleys up to at least two inches across portions of the northern and western highlands as of February 18, 2026. This is near to above average SWE for mid-February.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows are generally running below to well below average across most of central Pennsylvania as of February 18, 2025. (Note that the streamflows from many gages are currently missing due to ice effects on many area rivers and streams.)

Soil Moisture Conditions:
As of February 17, 2026, soil moisture conditions were below to well below average across central Pennsylvania.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
Seven-day rainfall is forecast to range from half an inch to an inch across central Pennsylvania through the evening of February 25.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
The 8-14 day outlook calls for above average temperatures and above average precipitation across central Pennsylvania. The latest 6-10 Day , 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability):
These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends.
Forecast points along the Swatara Creek (Harper Tavern, Hershey, Middletown) have a 25% or greater chance of exceeding flood levels this Spring.
Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points.

Flood Outlook Summary:
Current and expected conditions:
Recent precipitation:		30-day & 60-day below to well below average
Snow conditions:		Near to above average
River Ice:			Above average
Streamflow Conditions:		Below to well below average
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Below to well below average
Groundwater:			Below to well below average
Reservoir Conditions:		Below to well below average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Near average next 7 days,  followed by above average for the 8-14 day period

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across central Pennsylvania.

Next update by: March 6, 2026