Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for 
Central Pennsylvania 
Valid March 6, 2026
Issued by: WFO State College
Contact Information: ctp.stormreports@noaa.gov
Next update due by March 20, 2026
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across Central Pennsylvania.

30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30-day and 60-day precipitation departures remain below average, although some recent recovery has been observed.

Latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE):
Much of the snow cover across Central Pennsylvania has melted, outside of some patches across the northern mountains.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows were running near to above average across much of Pennsylvania, and well above average across the southeast.

Soil Moisture Conditions:
Soil moisture remains below to well below average across central Pennsylvania, with the largest deficits being across the southern counties.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
7-day rainfall ranges from around half an inch across the Lower Susquehanna Valley up to over one and a half inches across the northwestern highlands of Pennsylvania.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
After a relatively mild start to March, temperatures will trend back below average for mid-March, while precipitation will continue to trend towards above average. The latest 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability):
These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends.
The points highlighted in orange have a 25% or greater chance of exceeding flood stage this Spring, and include Harper Tavern and Middletown on Swatara Creek. Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points.

Flood Outlook Summary current and expected conditions:
Recent precipitation:		30-day & 60-day - generally below average
Snow conditions:		Near average
River Ice:			Near average
Streamflow Conditions:		Near to above average
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Below to well below average
Groundwater:			Below to well below average
Reservoir Conditions:		Below average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Near average for the 7-day and above average for days 8-14

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across Central Pennsylvania.

Next update by: March 20, 2026