Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for Central Pennsylvania 
Valid March 20, 2026
Issued by: WFO State College
Next update due by April 3, 2026
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across Central Pennsylvania.

30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30-day precipitation departures have generally been above average, while 60-day departures have generally been near average.

Latest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE):
Snow water equivalent for mid-March is generally near to above average across central Pennsylvania.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows in mid-March were generally near to slightly above average across central Pennsylvania.

Soil Moisture Conditions:
Calculated soil moisture in mid-March was generally below to well below average across central Pennsylvania.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
The 7-day precipitation forecast ranges from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across far southeastern Pennsylvania to three-quarters of an inch to an inch across the north. This is near to below average for mid-March.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
8-14 day temperatures will trend from below average across northeastern Pennsylvania to above average across the southwest. Precipitation will generally be near average to perhaps above average in the far northwest. The latest 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability):
These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends. The forecast points highlighted in orange have a 25% or greater chance of exceeding flood stage this Spring, and include points on Swatara Creek and the Conodoguinet Creek. Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points.

Flood Outlook Summary current and expected conditions:

Recent precipitation:		30-day above average; 60-day generally near average
Snow conditions:		Near to above average
River Ice:			No remaining river ice
Streamflow Conditions:		Near to slightly above average
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Below to well below average
Groundwater:			Near to below average
Reservoir Conditions:		Near to below average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Near to below average for the 7-day, and near average for days 8-14

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE across Central Pennsylvania.

Next update by: April 3, 2026