Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for Central Pennsylvania 
Valid April 17, 2026
Issued by: WFO State College
Next update due by May 1, 2026
This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly.

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks ranges from NEAR AVERAGE across north-central Pennsylvania to BELOW AVERAGE across south-central Pennsylvania.

30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30 and 60-day precipitation departures have ranged from above to well above average across north-central Pennsylvania to slightly below average across south-central Pennsylvania.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows were generally near average across north-central Pennsylvania and below to well below average across south-central Pennsylvania.

Soil Moisture Conditions:
0-100 centimeter soil mixture ranged from near average near the New York state line to below to well below average across the remainder of central Pennsylvania.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
7-day precipitation is expected to range from a quarter to half an inch across south-central Pennsylvania up to around one inch in the northwestern highlands.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
8-14 day temperatures and precipitation are expected to generally be near average across central Pennsylvania. The latest 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability):
These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends.
The forecast points highlighted in orange have a 25% or greater chance of exceeding flood stage this Spring, and include points on Swatara Creek and the Conodoguinet Creek.
Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points.

Flood Outlook Summary:
Current and expected conditions across Central Pennsylvania:

Recent precipitation:		30-day & 60-day above average north to slightly below average south
Snow conditions:		No snow cover remains across central Pennsylvania
River Ice:			No river ice remains across central Pennsylvania
Streamflow Conditions:		Near average north to below average south
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Near average north to below average south
Groundwater:			Near average north to below average south
Reservoir Conditions:		Generally near average
Precipitation Forecast: 	Near to below average for 7-day; near average for days 8-14

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks ranges from NEAR AVERAGE across north-central Pennsylvania to BELOW AVERAGE across south-central Pennsylvania.

Next update by: May 1, 2026