Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for Central Pennsylvania Valid May 1, 2026 Issued by: WFO State College Next update due by May 15, 2026 This product will be updated approximately every two weeks through early Spring, and more frequently if conditions change significantly. The overall flood potential over the next two weeks ranges from NEAR AVERAGE across north-central Pennsylvania to BELOW AVERAGE across south-central Pennsylvania. 30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures: 30 and 60-day precipitation departures ranged from above average across northern and western Pennsylvania to below average across south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts: Streamflows across Central Pennsylvania ranged from near to above average across north-central Pennsylvania to near to below average across south-central Pennsylvania. Soil Moisture Conditions: Soil moisture ranges from near average across northern Pennsylvania to below to well below average across the south. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast: 7-day precipitation is expected to range from a quarter to half an inch across south-central Pennsylvania up to one to one and a quarter inches across the northwestern highlands. 8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: 8-14 day temperatures are expected to be cooler than average, with precipitation trending above average. The latest 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. Long-Range River Outlook (25% Probability): These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends. The forecast points highlighted in orange have a 25% or greater chance of exceeding flood stage this Spring, and include points on Swatara Creek and the Conodoguinet Creek. Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points. Flood Outlook Summary Current and expected conditions across Central Pennsylvania: Recent precipitation: 30-day & 60-day above average north to below average south Snow conditions: No snow cover remains across central Pennsylvania River Ice: No river ice remains across central Pennsylvania Streamflow Conditions: Near to above average north and near to below average south Soil Moisture Conditions: Near average north to below to well below average south Groundwater: Near average north to below average south Reservoir Conditions: Generally near average 7-Day Precipitation: Near average north to below average south 8-14 day Precipitation: Above average areawide The overall flood potential over the next two weeks ranges from NEAR AVERAGE across north-central Pennsylvania to BELOW AVERAGE across south-central Pennsylvania. Next update by: May 15, 2026