Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for Central Pennsylvania 
Valid May 15, 2026
Issued by: WFO State College

This is the final Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for the 2026 season.

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks ranges from NEAR AVERAGE across north-central Pennsylvania to BELOW AVERAGE across south-central Pennsylvania.

30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures:
30-day and 60-day precipitation departures have ranged from above average across northern and western Pennsylvania to below average across south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts:
Streamflows are running near average across northern Pennsylvania and below to well below average across the south.

Soil Moisture Conditions:
0-100 centimeter soil moisture ranges from above average across northwestern Pennsylvania to well below average across the southeast.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast:
7-day precipitation is forecast to be between three-quarters of an inch and one and a half inches across Central Pennsylvania, which is generally near average.

8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:
8-14 day temperatures are expected to trend above average, and precipitation is expected to trend near average. The latest 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage.

Long-Range River Flood Outlook (25% Probability):
The Long Range River Flood Outlook calls for less than a 25% probability of any river forecast points across Central Pennsylvania reaching Flood Stage. These model forecasts take into consideration current, future, and historical trends. Please see the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) webpage for additional details on long range flood outlooks at river gauge points.

Flood Outlook Summary with current and expected conditions across Central Pennsylvania:

Recent precipitation:		30-day & 60-day above average north/west to below average south/east
Snow conditions:		No snow cover remains across central Pennsylvania
River Ice:			No river ice remains across central Pennsylvania
Streamflow Conditions:		Near average north and below/well below average south
Soil Moisture Conditions:	Above average northwest to well below average southeast
Groundwater:			Near average north to below average south
Reservoir Conditions:		Generally near average
7-Day Precipitation:		Near average areawide
8-14 day Precipitation: 	Near average areawide

The overall flood potential over the next two weeks ranges from NEAR AVERAGE across north-central Pennsylvania to BELOW AVERAGE across south-central Pennsylvania.

This is the final Winter/Spring Flood Outlook of the 2026 season.