Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid January 5, 2026 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated February 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico. Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate (D1) drought status affecting Far West Texas. No change in drought conditions after very warm and dry December. Drought conditions expected to persist or re-develop in January due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) Portions of Western New Mexico including Grant County D2 (Severe Drought) Most of Southwest and South-central New Mexico, Gila National Forest D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties, Lincoln National Forest D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of Far West Texas (83% of New Mexico, 80% of Texas) Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: None No Change: Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.05-0.25” along I-10 corridor. 0.10-0.30” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 1.00-2.00” along I-10 corridor. 2.00-3.00” over mountain forests. Below normal precipitation in December for all of New Mexico and Texas. Temperature Above normal December temperatures for New Mexico and Texas, warmest on record for many locations 30-day high temperature anomalies 8-10 degrees above normal December mean average temperature 8.8°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP), warmest December on record Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running much below normal. Mimbres River and Rio Grande south of the Caballo Dam have both dried up and will likely remain dry through the winter and spring seasons. River levels will remain low through the winter due to lack of precipitation. Spring snowmelt may lead to rises. Elephant Butte storage sits at 8.4% capacity, higher than last month but well below the historical 30-year average. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains below normal through the typically drier winter and spring seasons. Outlook points to near normal precipitation in January. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Periods of elevated fire danger possible this month due to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ERCs are above normal for January across both Gila and Lincoln forests. Fire risk will begin to increase in the coming months as the spring wind season begins. Periods of strong winds could lead to large fire growth in January as mostly dry conditions prevail. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running much below normal. No sudden rises occurred in December. Mimbres River, Rio Grande below Caballo Dam have both run dry for the season. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 1.40 ft 11.00 ft 73 ft³/s Redrock 4.44 ft 20.00 ft 77 ft³/s Virden 5.18 ft 15.00 ft 67 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft None Gauge data recorded on 1/5/2026 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid January 3, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid January 3, 2026 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid December 21-27, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for January 2026 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Light rain showers and mountain snow expected this week, followed by mostly dry conditions the second week of January. Majority of January looks dry for New Mexico and west Texas, but near seasonal normals. 2025 autumn season rainfall finished near or above normal for southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitation ranged from 90-170% of normal. Drought conditions are likely to persist through the winter season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the winter season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid January 12 to 18 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Equal chances of precipitation for southwest New Mexico. 33-40% of below normal precipitation across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.39” 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures for southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 58.6° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist or re-develop through January due to seasonally dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook