Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid February 3, 2026 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated March 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico. Drought status removed for Far West Texas. Improvement to drought conditions after abnormally wet January. Drought conditions for Southwest New Mexico expected to persist in February due to near normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) None D2 (Severe Drought) Most of Southwest and South-Central New Mexico, Gila National Forest D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of Southeast New Mexico, Lincoln National Forest D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of Far West Texas (99% of New Mexico, 95% of Texas) Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas No Change: Portions of Southwest New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 1.50-3.00” along I-10 corridor. 2.50-4.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 2.50-3.50” along I-10 corridor. 4.00-5.00” over mountain forests. Precipitation 300-500% above normal in January for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Majority of precipitation fell 1/23-1/25. Temperature Late January cold snap, but near normal January temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas 30-day high temperatures near normal January mean average temperature 1.3°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running slightly below normal. Mimbres River and Rio Grande south of the Caballo Dam have both dried up and will likely remain dry through the spring and early summer seasons. Seasonal snowpack running below normal (40-60%), but spring snowmelt may lead to rises. Elephant Butte storage at 10.7% capacity, higher than last month but well below the historical 30-year average. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is near normal after abnormally wet January. Outlook points to near normal precipitation in February. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Periods of elevated fire danger possible in February as winds increase. ERCs are below normal for February across both Gila and Lincoln forests. Fire risk will increase in the coming months as the spring windy season begins. Periods of strong winds could lead to large fire growth in February as mostly dry conditions prevail. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running slightly below normal. No sudden rises occurred in January. Mimbres River, Rio Grande below Caballo Dam have both run dry for the season. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 1.52 ft 11.00 ft 88 ft³/s Redrock 4.72 ft 20.00 ft 106 ft³/s Virden 5.36 ft 15.00 ft 101 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft None Gauge data recorded on 2/3/2026 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid February 1, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid February 1, 2026 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid January 25-31, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for February 2026 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast First week of February was dry, precipitation chances return in mid-February. Majority of February looks dry for New Mexico and West Texas, but near seasonal normals. 2025 autumn season rainfall finished near or above normal for southern New Mexico and far west Texas. January precipitation ranged from 300-500% above normal. Recent precipitation has allowed drought conditions to improve over the past 6 months. Drought conditions are likely to persist for Southwest New Mexico through the spring season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across Southwest New Mexico. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist across Southwest New Mexico through the spring season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid February 10-16 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Equal chances of precipitation for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.40” 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures for South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for Western New Mexico. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 64.1° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist across Southwest and South-Central New Mexico. No drought status for Far West Texas. Typical February precipitation expected. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook