Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid March 5, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov ● This product will be updated April 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. ● Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. ● Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. ● Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. ● Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. ● Warmer and drier-than-normal winter worsens drought conditions across western New Mexico with very low mountain snowpack. ● Drought conditions expected to persist through the spring months. Rough start to the 2025 growing season likely. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent ○ D4 (Exceptional Drought) Davis Mountains, Big Bend region ○ D3 (Extreme Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Southern New Mexico including Dona Ana, Luna, Grant, and Hidalgo Counties. Gila National Forest. ○ D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of Southern New Mexico including Sierra and Otero Counties. Lincoln National Forest. ○ D1 (Moderate Drought) Western New Mexico (60% of New Mexico, 49% of Texas) ○ D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (92% of New Mexico, 80% of Texas) ● A very dry winter caused drought to worsen. Drought is expected to persist through the spring months. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. ○ Drought Worsened: Portions of Western and Central New Mexico including Gila National Forest. Lower Rio Grande Valley. ○ Drought Improved: None ○ No Change: Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.00-0.10” along I-10 corridor. 0.15-0.30” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 0.10-0.25” along I-10 corridor. 0.40-0.70” over mountain forests. Historically dry winter for many. Little to no mountain snowpack. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Temperature ● Warmer than normal February for New Mexico and Far West Texas. ● 30-day high temperature anomalies 4-7 degrees above normal. ● 2024 was the hottest year on record for El Paso. ● February mean average temperatures 5.4°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts ● Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected through the spring. Mountain snowpack is practically non-existent to start March, which will keep the spring melting and runoff to a minimum. No sudden rises occurred in February. Flow remains near normal out of Lincoln National Forest. River levels will remain steady through the spring season with only temporary rises due to rain or snow melt but long-term river levels should remain consistent into next summer’s Monsoon season. Rio Grande water has dried up south of the Caballo Dam and will remain dry before opening in May/June. Elephant Butte storage sits at 13.1% capacity, an increase from last month but well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts ● Warmer and drier than usual conditions expected in March, with short-lived cold snaps. Outlook points to a very dry Spring season and rough start to the 2025 growing season. Last year’s Rio Grande irrigation surface water allotment was 12 inches. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts ● Above normal ERCs exist across the National Forests due to recent dryness, close to the 90th percentile. Soil moisture remains very low. Lack of winter snowpack may limit the spring greenup especially under forest canopies. Large fire risk is Critical with any breezy to windy days going forward. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts ● Very little snowpack over area mountains as of March 1. Lack of mountain snow will minimize flood risk this spring as no excessive rainfall is expected through May. River flooding season will begin again next summer. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 1.20 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 4.17 ft 20.00 ft Virden 4.82 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 3/5/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid March 4, 2025 National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid March 4, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending March 1, 2025 National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for March 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Seven Day Precipitation Forecast ● Light mountain precipitation possible this week, with a few more opportunities later in the month. Climate outlook for March leans drier and warmer than normal. ● 2024 finished below normal for precipitation area wide. Drought conditions are likely to linger through the spring season. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. ● While below normal precipitation totals are expected through the spring season, rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the spring season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid March 12 to 18 National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage ● 33-40% chance for below normal precipitation across Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico ● Monthly average for El Paso: 0.24” ● 33-40% chance for above normal temperatures across Far West Texas, higher chance for near normal across Western New Mexico. National Weather Service 7:16 AM March 5, 2025 El Paso, TX Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage ● Drought conditions are expected to persist through March, possibly re-developing further northeast across Northeast New Mexico and much of Central Texas Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook