Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid March 6, 2026 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated April 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico. Drought status removed for South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Below normal precipitation, above normal temperatures in February. Drought conditions for Southwest New Mexico expected to persist in March due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) None D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Grant, Sierra, and Hidalgo Counties Gila National Forest D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas Lincoln National Forest Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of South-Central New Mexico, Lincoln National Forest No Change: Portions of Southwest New Mexico, Far West Texas Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.05-0.15” along I-10 corridor. 0.40-0.75” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 1.50-2.50” along I-10 corridor. 4.00-5.00” over mountain forests. Precipitation 10-40% below normal in February, but late January precipitation keeps seasonal totals at or above normal. Temperature Mild start to February, then above normal for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Record highs set in late February. 30-day high temperatures 4-6 degrees above normal February mean average temperature 5.7°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running slightly below normal. Mimbres River and Rio Grande south of the Caballo Dam have both dried up and will likely remain dry through the spring and early summer seasons. Seasonal snowpack is finishing well below normal (30-50%) for the Gila and Rio Grande watersheds. Elephant Butte storage at 12.1% capacity, higher than last month but well below the historical 30-year average. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is near normal after abnormally wet January. Outlook points to below normal precipitation in March. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Periods of critical fire danger are expected in March due to high wind and low humidity. ERCs are near normal for March across both Gila and Lincoln National Forests. Fire risk will increase in the coming months with the spring windy season and early summer heat. Further drying and periods of strong winds could lead to large fire growth in March as mostly dry conditions prevail. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running slightly below normal. No sudden rises occurred in February. Mimbres River, Rio Grande below Caballo Dam have both run dry for the season. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 1.64 ft 11.00 ft 109 ft³/s Redrock 4.62 ft 20.00 ft 97 ft³/s Virden 5.26 ft 15.00 ft 82 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft None Gauge data recorded on 3/6/2026 Image Caption: USGS 7 day Streamflow Status valid March 6, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid March 5, 2026 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid February 22-28, 2026 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for March 2026 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast First week of March was dry, with scattered rain chances possible the second week. Majority of March looks dry for New Mexico and West Texas, with below normal precipitation expected. 2025-26 winter season precipitation finished above normal for south-central New Mexico and far west Texas, but slightly below normal for western New Mexico. Recent precipitation has allowed drought conditions to improve over the past 6 months, but drought status will remain higher west toward AZ/NM state line. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across Southwest New Mexico. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist across Southwest New Mexico through the spring season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid March 14-20 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation for West and Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.24” 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 71.9° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist across Southwest New Mexico. No drought status for South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Below normal March precipitation expected. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook