Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX 
Valid May 4, 2026
Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM)
Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov
This product will be updated June 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates.
Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico. Abnormally Dry (D0) for Far West Texas.
Drought conditions will persist for Western New Mexico, but may further improve for South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. 
Above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures expected in May. Critically low Gila/Rio Grande river levels.


U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas
Drought Intensity and Extent

D4 (Exceptional Drought)
None

D3 (Extreme Drought)
None
 
D2 (Severe Drought) 
Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Grant, Sierra, and Hidalgo Counties
Gila and Lincoln National Forests

D1 (Moderate Drought) 
Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas

D0 (Abnormally Dry) 
Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas


Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas
4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 

Drought Worsened: 
Portions of El Paso and Hudspeth Counties in Far West Texas

Drought Improved: 
None

No Change: 
Southwest and South-Central New Mexico


Precipitation
30-day precip totals: 0.05-0.25” for desert lowlands. 0.25-1.50” over mountain forests.

90-day precip totals: 0.25-0.50” for desert lowlands. 1.00-2.00” over mountain forests.

Above normal April precipitation 250-400% for portions of South Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Below normal April precipitation 25-50% for western New Mexico, Gila National Forest.


Temperature
Slightly above normal April temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

30-day high temperatures 2-4 degrees above normal

April mean average temperature 2.4°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP).


Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts 
Gila River running well below normal due to below normal precipitation and the end of seasonal snowmelt. Mimbres River and Rio Grande south of the Caballo Dam are dry and will likely remain dry through the early summer season. Seasonal snowpack finished well below normal (10-25%) for the Gila and Rio Grande watersheds. Elephant Butte storage at 12.4% capacity, similar to last month and well below the historical 30-year average. (Texas Water Development Board).

Agricultural Impacts
Soil moisture is near normal after some April and early May precipitation. Outlook points to above normal precipitation in May, which could help planting season. 2026 Rio Grande irrigation season water allotment will likely be very strict due to critically low Rio Grande water flow. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information.

Fire Hazard Impacts
Periods of critical fire danger are expected in May due to high wind and low humidity. ERCs are low in early May due to recent precipitation, and can rise quickly following any stretches of dry and breezy conditions. Fire risk will remain Moderate to High over the next few months with the early summer wind and heat.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Gila River streamflow decreased last month due to below normal precipitation and the end of mountain snowmelt. No sudden rises occurred in April. Mimbres River, Rio Grande below Caballo Dam have both run dry for the season.

Gila River Stages
					Latest			Flood Stage			Discharge
Gila			1.11 ft			11.00 ft					27 ft³/s
Redrock		4.27 ft			20.00 ft					42 ft³/s
Virden		4.88 ft			15.00 ft					24 ft³/s

Rio Grande Stages
Latest			Flood Stage			Discharge
El Paso		Low Stage		8.50 ft					None

Gauge data recorded on 5/4/2026
Image Caption: USGS 7 day Streamflow Status valid May 3, 2026


Agricultural Impacts
Image Captions: 
Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid May 2, 2026
Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid April 19-25, 2026


Fire Hazard Impacts

Latest TX Burn Ban map available here

Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here
Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for May 2026
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.


Seven Day Precipitation Forecast

Widespread rain fell across the region on May 1, followed by light rain showers in early May, mostly across Southwest New Mexico. Monthly forecast is confident in above normal May precipitation, which may help decrease drought conditions.

2025-26 winter season precipitation finished above normal for south-central New Mexico and far west Texas, but slightly below normal for western New Mexico.


Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.

Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across Southwest New Mexico. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist across Southwest New Mexico into the summer season, but may decrease due to additional precipitation.
Image Caption: 
Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid May 11-17 


Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
60-70% chance for above normal precipitation for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.43”

33-40% chance of above normal temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 88.7°


Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

Drought conditions are expected to persist across Southwest New Mexico, but may decrease due to additional precipitation. No drought status for El Paso/Las Cruces metro. Above normal May precipitation expected.
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook