Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid May 7, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated June 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas. Drought conditions expected to persist into the summer months, near normal precipitation and temperatures for May. River levels well below normal due to lack of mountain snowmelt, limited irrigation likely for 2025 Rio Grande growing season. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties D3 (Extreme Drought) Most of Southwest and South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Luna, Grant, and Hidalgo, Sierra, and Otero Counties. Gila and Lincoln National Forests. D2 (Severe Drought) Northwest and Central New Mexico D1 (Moderate Drought) Northeast New Mexico (96% of New Mexico, 53% of Texas) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (100% of New Mexico, 64% of Texas) Lack of spring rains have caused drought to worsen over SW NM. Drought is expected to persist into the summer months. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of Southwest and Central New Mexico including Gila National Forest and the middle Rio Grande Valley Drought Improved: None No Change: Portions of Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.10-0.30” along I-10 corridor. 0.15-0.40” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 0.25-0.50” along I-10 corridor. 0.50-1.00” over mountain forests. Decent April rains for west Texas, improving drought slightly. Very dry west of the Rio Grande, where drought worsened. Temperature Near normal April for New Mexico and Far West Texas. 30-day high temperature anomalies near normal or 0-1 degrees below normal. April mean average temperatures 0.6°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected through the spring. Mountain snowpack was practically non-existent last winter with minimal snowmelt. No sudden rises occurred in April. Flow remains near normal out of Lincoln National Forest. River levels will remain steady through the early summer with only temporary rises due to rain or thunderstorms but long-term river levels should remain consistent into this summer’s Monsoon season. Rio Grande water has dried up south of the Caballo Dam and will remain dry before opening in early June. Elephant Butte storage sits at 14.0% capacity, no change from last month and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Rains over the northern Rio Grande may help increase storage some this month, but local rain chances remain quite low. Outlook points to a dry late Spring and rough start to the 2025 growing season. This year’s projected Rio Grande irrigation surface water allotment is only 5-6 inches. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Recent rains have decreased ERCs recently, closer to normal for early May. Soil moisture remains low. Lack of winter snowpack may limit the spring greenup especially under forest canopies. Large fire risk is Critical with any windy days going forward. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Little to no Gila River snow melt this year. Flood risk will remain low in May. River flooding season will begin again next summer. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 1.03 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 3.85 ft 20.00 ft Virden 4.40 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 5/7/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid May 6, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid May 6, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending May 3, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 25, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for May 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Best rain chances this week further north into central New Mexico. Dryline thunderstorms may reach south-central NM and far west TX later this month, but focusing further east over Southern High Plains. Climate outlook for May leans near normal for both precipitation and temperature. 2024 finished below normal for precipitation area wide. Drought conditions are likely to persist into the summer season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. While below normal precipitation totals are expected through the spring season, rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist into the summer season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid May 14 to 20 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance for portions of Far West Texas and South-Central New Mexico, near normal for Southwest New Mexico Monthly average for El Paso: 0.43” Near normal May temperatures are most likely across Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through May, possibly increasing in severity across Western New Mexico Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook