Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid June 4, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated July 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas. Drought conditions expected to persist through the summer months, near normal precipitation and above normal temperatures this season. River levels well below normal due to lack of mountain snowmelt, limited irrigation for 2025 Rio Grande growing season. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties Southwest New Mexico including Grant, Luna, and Hidalgo Counties D3 (Extreme Drought) Most of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Sierra, and Otero Counties. Gila and Lincoln National Forests. D2 (Severe Drought) Northwest and Central New Mexico D1 (Moderate Drought) Eastern New Mexico (84% of New Mexico, 39% of Texas) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (94% of New Mexico, 49% of Texas) Lack of spring rain have caused drought to worsen over SW NM. Drought is expected to persist through the summer. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Gila National Forest and NM Bootheel Drought Improved: None No Change: Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.05-0.25” along I-10 corridor. 0.10-0.50” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 0.20-0.40” along I-10 corridor. 0.50-1.00” over mountain forests. Very spotty May rainfall due to isolated thunderstorms. Very dry west of the Rio Grande, where drought worsened. Temperature Near normal to slightly below normal May for New Mexico and Far West Texas. 30-day high temperature anomalies near normal or 0-1 degrees below normal. May mean average temperatures 0.7°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows in Gila and Mimbres basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected through the start of summer. Mountain snowpack was practically non-existent last winter with minimal snowmelt. No sudden rises occurred in May. Flow remains near normal out of Lincoln National Forest. River levels will be highly dependent on high terrain thunderstorms through September with sudden rises possible. Rio Grande water has released south of the Caballo Dam, reaching El Paso on June 3rd. Elephant Butte storage sits at 11.8% capacity, lower than last month due to downstream release and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is well below normal due to ongoing drought conditions. Outlook points to a slow start to the summer monsoon season, but near normal precipitation this summer. Rio Grande irrigation surface water allotment is six inches (6”) per acre for the 2025 growing season. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts ERC’s are near normal due to recent rains over the mountain forests, reaching their climatological peak this month. Lighter winds this month will reduce the risk of large wildfire growth, but lightning may start wildfires with moderate growth. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running well below normal, Mimbres River is dry. Rio Grande at El Paso reporting streamflow as of June 3rd. Flood risk remains low in June, but may increase headed into the monsoon season. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Gila 0.68 ft 11.00 ft Redrock 3.79 ft 20.00 ft Virden 5.10 ft 15.00 ft Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage El Paso 4.16 ft 8.50 ft Gauge stage recorded on 6/4/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid June 3, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid June 3, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending May 31, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 25, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for June 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Widespread rains occurred June 1 and 2. Best rain chances this week further east over the Southern High Plains. First half of June likely remaining dry, then better rain chances in late June. Climate outlook for May leans near normal for precipitation and above normal for temperature. 2023 and 2024 monsoon seasons finished well below normal. Precipitation expected to be closer to normal this summer. Drought conditions are likely to persist through the summer season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Severe to Exceptional Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the summer season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid June 11 to 17 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation for portions of Western New Mexico, near normal for South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.73” 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 92.7° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through June, likely remaining Severe to Exceptional across Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook