Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid July 2, 2026 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated August 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico. No drought for Far West Texas. Drought conditions will persist for South-Central New Mexico in July, but may improve for Southwest New Mexico. Further improvements to drought are possible later this summer. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) None D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of Southern New Mexico including Otero, Sierra, Grant, Luna, and Hidalgo Counties Gila and Lincoln National Forests D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of South-Central New Mexico Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas No Change: Southwest and South-Central New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals: 0.50-2.00” for desert lowlands. 1.00-3.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals: 1.00-4.00” for desert lowlands. 2.00-5.00” over mountain forests. Above normal June precipitation 150-300% for most of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Below normal June precipitation 25-75% for portions of Southwest New Mexico. Temperature Slightly above normal June temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. 30-day high temperatures 0-2 degrees above normal June mean average temperature 2.3°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP). Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running well below normal due to below normal precipitation in the Gila Wilderness. Water was released south of Caballo Dam along the Rio Grande on May 29, with river gauges in El Paso responding on June 1. Mimbres River may see sudden increases in July due to thunderstorms. Elephant Butte storage at 3.7% capacity, lower than last month and well below the historical 30-year average. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is near normal after favorable June precipitation. Outlook leans to above normal precipitation in July, which could help the summer growing season. 2026 Rio Grande irrigation season surface water allotment is four inches (4”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts A more active monsoonal pattern and thunderstorm rainfall over local forests will reduce the risk of large fire growth in July. Periods of elevated fire danger will still be possible, with the primary risk for wildfires being lightning starts. ERCs are near normal for early July. Fire risk will be Low to Moderate over the next couple months with periods of rainfall and lightning activity. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River streamflow remained low over the last month due to below normal precipitation. No sudden rises occurred in June. Water was released along the Rio Grande below Caballo Dam on May 29. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 0.34 ft 11.00 ft 4 ft³/s Redrock 3.60 ft 20.00 ft 4 ft³/s Virden 4.25 ft 15.00 ft 1 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso 4.45 ft 8.50 ft 580 ft³/s Gauge data recorded on 7/2/2026 Image Caption: USGS 7 day Streamflow Status valid July 2, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid July 1, 2026 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid June 21-27, 2026 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for July 2026 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms through early July. Isolated thunderstorms in the lowlands. Heaviest rains favoring the NM mountains and generally east of the Rio Grande. Monthly forecast is leaning towards above normal July precipitation, which may help improve drought conditions. 2026 yearly precipitation totals are on track to finish above normal after an overall wet June. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across Southern New Mexico. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to improve across Southern New Mexico through the monsoon season. Low risk of extreme heat in mid-July. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid July 10-16 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance for above normal precipitation for Western New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 1.58” 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for Western New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 95.8° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist across most of New Mexico through July, but should improve for the rest of monsoon season due to above normal precipitation. No drought status for Far West Texas and El Paso/Las Cruces metro. July precipitation leaning above normal. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook