Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid July 4, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov ● This product will be updated August 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. ● Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. ● Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. ● Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. ● Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas. ● Improvement in drought status after recent rains, above normal June precipitation. Further improvement expected in July. ● Drought conditions expected to persist through the summer months, near normal precipitation and above normal temperatures this season. National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent ○ D4 (Exceptional Drought) Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties ○ D3 (Extreme Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties Most of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Luna and Sierra Counties. Gila National Forest. ○ D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Otero County and Lincoln National Forest. ○ D1 (Moderate Drought) Eastern New Mexico (84% of New Mexico, 39% of Texas) ○ D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (94% of New Mexico, 49% of Texas) ● Abnormally wet start to the 2025 monsoon season has improved drought conditions somewhat. Drought is expected to persist through the summer. National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. ○ Drought Worsened: None ○ Drought Improved: Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas, including El Paso ○ No Change: Upper Rio Grande Valley, Western New Mexico National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 1.00-2.00” along I-10 corridor. 1.50-4.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 1.50-2.50” along I-10 corridor. 2.00-5.00” over mountain forests. Much higher rainfall in June, especially across Rio Grande Valley. Precipitation totals rapidly drop off along AZ/NM state line. National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Temperature ● Near normal to slightly below normal June for New Mexico and Far West Texas ● 30-day high temperature anomalies near normal ● June mean average temperatures 1.9°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts ● Streamflow in Gila basins are well below normal with no flooding issues expected through the start of summer. Flow is now above normal out of Mimbres and Sacramento Mountain basins. Burn scar flooding caused rapid spikes in streamflow for the Mimbres (June 24 and July 2) and Rio Ruidoso (June 20, 23, 25, 26, 29). River levels will be highly dependent on thunderstorms through September with additional sudden rises possible. Rio Grande water has released south of the Caballo Dam, reaching El Paso on June 3rd. Elephant Butte storage sits at 6.5% capacity, lower than last month due to downstream release and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts ● Soil moisture remains below normal despite recent rains. Current drought will take time to recover. Outlook points to near normal precipitation this summer. Rio Grande irrigation surface water allotment is six inches (6”) per acre for the 2025 growing season. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts ● ERC’s have fallen to below normal due to recent rains, effectively ending the peak fire season locally. Lightning starts and erratic outflow winds around thunderstorms will continue to be possible in July. Additional rains and lighter prevailing winds will further reduce the risk of large fire growth this month. National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts ● Gila River running well below normal, despite slight increase recently. Mimbres River spikes on June 24 and July 2 due to upstream flooding. High flows and rapid rises out of Rio Ruidoso due to upstream burn scars. Rio Grande at El Paso reporting streamflow as of June 3rd. Flood risk increasing this month due to thunderstorms and heavy rain potential. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 0.87 ft 11.00 ft 41 ft3/s Redrock 3.74 ft 20.00 ft 12 ft3/s Virden 4.87 ft 15.00 ft 0 ft3/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso 3.67 ft 8.50 ft 171 ft3/s Gauge data recorded on 7/4/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid July 2, 2025 National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid July 2, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending June 28, 2025 National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for July 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Seven Day Precipitation Forecast ● Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again next week (July 6-12). Rain totals will be spotty and highly variable. Best rain chances over area mountains. Climate outlook for July leans above normal for both temperature and precipitation. ● 2023 and 2024 monsoon seasons finished well below normal. Precipitation expected to be closer to normal this summer. Drought conditions are likely to persist through the summer season. National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. ● Severe to Exceptional Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the summer season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid July 11 to 17 National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage ● 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation for portions of Southern New Mexico, Far West Texas ● Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 1.58” ● 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures for Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas ● Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 95.8° National Weather Service 12:14 AM July 4, 2025 El Paso, TX Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage ● Drought conditions are expected to improve area wide through July due to favorable thunderstorm chances. Drought status may fall one or two categories this month depending on precipitation coverage, but some drought designation is likely to remain in place through the rest of the summer. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook