Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid August 6, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated September 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas. Slight improvement in drought status in July after near to above normal precipitation. Drought conditions expected to persist into the autumn season, below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures in August. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties. Gila National Forest. D3 (Extreme Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties Most of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Luna and Sierra Counties. D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Otero County D1 (Moderate Drought) Lincoln National Forest. Eastern New Mexico (78% of New Mexico, 20% of Texas) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (93% of New Mexico, 27% of Texas) Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of Southeast New Mexico including Lincoln National Forest No Change: Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley, Southwest New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 2.00-3.00” along I-10 corridor. 3.00-4.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 3.00-4.50” along I-10 corridor. 4.00-6.00” over mountain forests. Near to above normal rainfall along Rio Grande, south-central NM in July. Precipitation totals rapidly drop off along AZ/NM state line. Temperature Near normal to slightly below normal July for New Mexico and Far West Texas 30-day high temperature anomalies near normal July mean average temperatures 0.8°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow in Gila basins remain below normal despite summer rains. Rio Grande and Mimbres Rivers are running closer to normal. Burn scar flooding caused rapid spikes in streamflow for the Mimbres (July 18 and 22) and Rio Ruidoso (July 8, 24, 30). River levels will be highly dependent on thunderstorms through September with additional sudden rises. Rio Grande water released south of the Caballo Dam, reaching El Paso on June 3rd. Elephant Butte storage sits at 3.8% capacity, much lower than last month due to downstream release and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture increased this month, closer to normal due to recent rains. More typical monsoon rainfall has improved drought status somewhat. Outlook points to near normal precipitation rest of this summer. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts ERC’s are above normal for August due to recent dryness. Peak fire season has ended, but additional lightning starts will be possible this month. Low risk of large fire growth in August due to additional rains and light prevailing winds. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running below normal, despite summer rains. Gila River spikes occurred on July 23, 29, and 31. Mimbres River spikes on July 18 and 22 due to upstream burn scar flooding. High flows and rapid rises out of Rio Ruidoso due to upstream burn scars. Rio Grande at El Paso reporting normal streamflow. Flood risk continues through September with the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 0.97 ft 11.00 ft 51 ft³/s Redrock 3.83 ft 20.00 ft 17 ft³/s Virden 4.67 ft 15.00 ft 1 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso 3.97 ft 8.50 ft 531 ft³/s Gauge data recorded on 8/6/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid August 5, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid August 5, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending August 2, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again next week (August 10-16). Rain totals will be spotty and highly variable. Best rain chances over area mountains and western NM. Climate outlook for August leans toward above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. 2023 and 2024 monsoon seasons finished well below normal. Precipitation expected to be closer to normal this summer. Drought conditions are likely to persist through the summer season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Severe to Exceptional Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the summer season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid August 14 to 20 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation for most of Southern New Mexico, Far West Texas. Slightly better chances for Southwest New Mexico. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 1.67” 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures for Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 94.0° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through August due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Thunderstorm rainfall may provide temporary drought relief. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook