Drought Information Statement for
Southern NM/Far West TX
Valid August 6, 2025
Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM)
Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov
● This product will be updated September 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.
● Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
● Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
● Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates.

● Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought status affecting Southwest

New Mexico and Far West Texas.

● Slight improvement in drought status in July after near to above normal

precipitation.

● Drought conditions expected to persist into the autumn season, below

normal precipitation and above normal temperatures in August.

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas

Drought Intensity and Extent

○ D4 (Exceptional Drought)

Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties.
Gila National Forest.

○ D3 (Extreme Drought)

Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties
Most of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Luna
and Sierra Counties.

○ D2 (Severe Drought)

Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Otero County

○ D1 (Moderate Drought)
Lincoln National Forest.
Eastern New Mexico (78% of New Mexico, 20% of Texas)

○ D0 (Abnormally Dry)

Northeast New Mexico (93% of New Mexico, 27% of Texas)

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas

4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change.

○ Drought Worsened:

None

○ Drought Improved:

Portions of Southeast New Mexico
including Lincoln National Forest

○ No Change:

Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley,
Southwest New Mexico

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Precipitation

30-day precip totals,
2.00-3.00” along I-10 corridor.
3.00-4.00” over mountain
forests.

90-day precip totals,
3.00-4.50” along I-10 corridor.
4.00-6.00” over mountain
forests.

Near to above normal rainfall
along Rio Grande,
south-central NM in July.
Precipitation totals rapidly
drop off along AZ/NM state
line.

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Temperature

● Near normal to slightly
below normal July for New
Mexico and Far West Texas

● 30-day high temperature
anomalies near normal

● July mean average

temperatures 0.8°F above
normal at El Paso
International (KELP)

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter

Hydrologic Impacts
● Streamflow in Gila basins remain below normal despite summer rains. Rio Grande and Mimbres Rivers are
running closer to normal. Burn scar flooding caused rapid spikes in streamflow for the Mimbres (July 18 and
22) and Rio Ruidoso (July 8, 24, 30). River levels will be highly dependent on thunderstorms through
September with additional sudden rises. Rio Grande water released south of the Caballo Dam, reaching El
Paso on June 3rd. Elephant Butte storage sits at 3.8% capacity, much lower than last month due to
downstream release and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board).

Agricultural Impacts
● Soil moisture increased this month, closer to normal due to recent rains. More typical monsoon rainfall has
improved drought status somewhat. Outlook points to near normal precipitation rest of this summer. 2025
Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer
to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information.

Fire Hazard Impacts
● ERC’s are above normal for August due to recent dryness. Peak fire season has ended, but additional

lightning starts will be possible this month. Low risk of large fire growth in August due to additional rains
and light prevailing winds.

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts

● Gila River running below normal, despite summer rains. Gila River
spikes occurred on July 23, 29, and 31. Mimbres River spikes on
July 18 and 22 due to upstream burn scar flooding. High flows
and rapid rises out of Rio Ruidoso due to upstream burn scars. Rio
Grande at El Paso reporting normal streamflow. Flood risk
continues through September with the potential for
thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Gila River Stages

Latest Flood Stage Discharge
Gila 0.97 ft 11.00 ft 51 ft3/s
Redrock 3.83 ft 20.00 ft 17 ft3/s
Virden 4.67 ft 15.00 ft 1 ft3/s

Rio Grande Stages

Latest Flood Stage Discharge
El Paso 3.97 ft 8.50 ft 531 ft3/s

Gauge data recorded on 8/6/2025

Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow

HUC map valid August 5, 2025

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Agricultural Impacts

Image Captions:
Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid August 5, 2025
Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending August 2, 2025

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Fire Hazard Impacts

Latest TX Burn Ban map
available here

Latest NM Fire Restrictions
available here

Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential

Monthly Outlook for August 2025

Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast

● Scattered showers and thunderstorms

expected again next week (August 10-16).
Rain totals will be spotty and highly variable.
Best rain chances over area mountains and
western NM. Climate outlook for August
leans toward above normal temperatures and
below normal precipitation.

● 2023 and 2024 monsoon seasons finished
well below normal. Precipitation expected to
be closer to normal this summer. Drought
conditions are likely to persist through the
summer season.

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.

● Severe to Exceptional Drought is already in
place across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not
expected. Drought conditions are expected
to persist through the summer season.

Image Caption:

Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid August 14 to 20

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

● 40-50% chance of below

normal precipitation for most of
Southern New Mexico, Far West
Texas. Slightly better chances
for Southwest New Mexico.

● Monthly average precipitation

for El Paso: 1.67”

● 60-70% chance of above
normal temperatures for
Southwest New Mexico and Far
West Texas

● Monthly average high

temperature for El Paso: 94.0°

National Weather Service
9:43 AM
August 6, 2025

El Paso, TX

Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

● Drought conditions are expected to
persist through August due to below
normal precipitation and above normal
temperatures. Thunderstorm rainfall may
provide temporary drought relief.

Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook