Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Drought Information Statement for
Southern NM/Far West TX
Valid September 4, 2025
Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM)
Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov
● This product will be updated October 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.
● Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
● Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
● Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates.
● Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting Southwest New
Mexico and Far West Texas.
● Minimal changes in drought status in August after below normal, highly
variable precipitation.
● Drought conditions expected to improve further in September due to
additional rainfall, near normal precipitation.
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas
Drought Intensity and Extent
○ D4 (Exceptional Drought)
Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties.
Gila National Forest.
○ D3 (Extreme Drought)
Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Luna and Sierra
Counties
○ D2 (Severe Drought)
Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana and
Otero Counties
○ D1 (Moderate Drought)
Lincoln National Forest.
Southeast New Mexico (72% of New Mexico, 20% of Texas)
○ D0 (Abnormally Dry)
Northeast New Mexico (82% of New Mexico, 38% of Texas)
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas
4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change.
○ Drought Worsened:
Portions of Southeast New Mexico
○ Drought Improved:
Portions of Southwest New Mexico
○ No Change:
South-Central New Mexico, Far West
Texas
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Precipitation
30-day precip totals,
0.50-1.50” along I-10 corridor.
1.50-3.00” over mountain
forests.
90-day precip totals,
2.50-5.00” along I-10 corridor.
4.00-8.00” over mountain
forests.
Highly variable, but slightly
below normal rainfall along
Rio Grande, south-central NM
in July. Below normal rainfall
across western NM.
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Temperature
● Warmer than normal August
for New Mexico and Far
West Texas
● 30-day high temperature
anomalies above normal
● August mean average
temperatures 3.8°F above
normal at El Paso
International (KELP)
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts
● Rapid spike in Gila River on August 31 due to heavy rain. Gila and Rio Grande basins running below normal.
Mimbres River closer to normal. River levels will be highly dependent on thunderstorms through September
with additional sudden rises. Rio Grande has mostly dried up south of the Caballo Dam, reaching Low Stage
at El Paso in mid-August. Elephant Butte storage sits at 3.8% capacity, the same level as last month and well
below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board).
Agricultural Impacts
● Soil moisture remains below normal despite summer rains. Additional rain due to thunderstorms is likely in
September, which may improve drought status somewhat. Outlook points to near normal precipitation in
September. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per
acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more
information.
Fire Hazard Impacts
● Low fire danger due to summer rainfall and ERCs near normal for September. Peak fire season has ended, but
additional lightning starts will be possible this month. No risk of large fire growth in September due to rain
and light prevailing winds.
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
● Gila River running closer to normal after heavy rains on August
31, expected to fall back below normal in September. Gila River
spike occurred August 31, reaching reaching 13.5 feet/6,000 cfs
at Virden. Mimbres River spikes on August 12, 20, 31. Rio
Ruidoso basins running near normal. Rio Grande at El Paso has
dried up, returning to Low Stage.
Gila River Stages
Latest Flood Stage Discharge
Gila 0.83 ft 11.00 ft 29 ft³/s
Redrock 3.85 ft 20.00 ft 18 ft³/s
Virden 4.56 ft 15.00 ft 12 ft³/s
Rio Grande Stages
Latest Flood Stage Discharge
El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft 12 ft³/s
Gauge data recorded on 9/4/2025
Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow
HUC map valid September 3, 2025
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Agricultural Impacts
Image Captions:
Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid September 3, 2025
Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending August 30, 2025
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Fire Hazard Impacts
Latest TX Burn Ban map
available here
Latest NM Fire Restrictions
available here
Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential
Monthly Outlook for September 2025
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
● Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected the first week of September
(9/4-9/11). Rain totals will be spotty and
highly variable. Best rain chances over area
mountains and western NM. Climate outlook
for September leans toward near normal
temperatures and near normal precipitation.
● 2023 and 2024 monsoon seasons finished
well below normal. Precipitation was closer
to normal this summer. Drought conditions
are likely to persist through the autumn
season.
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.
● Severe to Extreme Drought is already in
place across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not
expected. Drought conditions are expected
to persist through the autumn season.
Image Caption:
Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid September 12 to 18
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
● 33-40% chance of above
normal precipitation for Eastern
New Mexico, equal chances
leaning near normal elsewhere.
● Monthly average precipitation
for El Paso: 1.52”
● Equal chances, leaning near
normal temperatures for
Southwest New Mexico and Far
West Texas
● Monthly average high
temperature for El Paso: 88.3°
National Weather Service
8:49 PM
September 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
● Drought conditions are expected to
improve further in September due to near
normal precipitation and temperatures.
Thunderstorm rainfall may provide
further drought relief.
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook