Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid September 4, 2026 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Worsening of drought conditions for Far West Texas due to below normal summer precipitation. Drought conditions expected to improve for much of New Mexico in September due to forecasted above normal precipitation. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) Sacramento Mountains east slopes D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of Southern and Southwest New Mexico including Otero, Sierra, Grant, Luna, and Hidalgo Counties Gila and Lincoln National Forests D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of South-Central New Mexico Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Far West Texas, including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana and Otero Counties Drought Improved: Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Grant County and the Black Range No Change: Portions of Southwest New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals: 0.50-2.00” for desert lowlands. 2.00-4.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals: 2.00-6.00” for desert lowlands. 4.00-10.00” over mountain forests. Below normal August precipitation 50-75% for most of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Highly variable precipitation, with localized areas of heavy precipitation. Temperature Above normal August temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. 30-day high temperatures 4-6 degrees above normal August mean average temperature 4.0°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP). 6th hottest August on record. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running well below normal due to below normal precipitation across Western New Mexico. Rio Grande downstream of Caballo Dam has run dry for the season. Mimbres River is near normal for the end of summer, with sudden increases in August due to thunderstorms. Elephant Butte storage at 1.4% capacity, the same as last month and near the historical 30-year minimum. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is below normal following a summer of below normal precipitation. Outlook leans to near normal precipitation in September, which could improve soil moisture conditions headed into the harvest season. 2026 Rio Grande irrigation season surface water allotment ended at four inches (4”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire season has ended for Southern New Mexico after a summer of rain. This monsoon season’s below normal precipitation has kept ERCs above normal for August. Small lightning starts will be possible in September, but large fire growth is not expected. Light winds will keep fire weather conditions low through the month. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River had a few spikes due to heavy rain in August, but has trended lower over the past 60 days. Streamflow remains well below normal for the end of summer. Rio Grande below Caballo Dam has run dry for the season. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 0.83 ft 11.00 ft 24 ft³/s Redrock 3.78 ft 20.00 ft 13 ft³/s Virden 3.61 ft 15.00 ft 10 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft 0 ft³/s Gauge data recorded on 9/4/2026 Image Caption: USGS 7 day Streamflow Status valid September 4, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid September 2, 2026 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid August 23-29, 2026 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for September 2026 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected area-wide through most of early September. Localized flash flooding is possible, especially across the high elevations and Western New Mexico. Precipitation outlook leans toward near to above normal for September, which may help improve drought conditions. Monsoon season is expected to end in early October, followed by a drier autumn season. 2026 yearly precipitation totals are on track to finish above normal after an overall wet June. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to improve through the autumn season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid September 11-17 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance for above normal precipitation for Western New Mexico, Equal Chances elsewhere. September monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 1.52” 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for Western New Mexico, 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures for Far West Texas. September monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 88.3° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to improve across most of New Mexico and Far West Texas through September. Precipitation forecast leaning near to above normal. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook