Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid October 3, 2026 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Recent heavy rain will improve drought conditions considerably in the coming weeks. Full removal of drought status for some locations. Outlook leans toward above normal precipitation in October, with further drought improvement expected. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) None D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of South-Central and Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties Lincoln National Forest D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas, including Otero, Sierra, Luna, and Hudspeth Counties Gila National Forest D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of South-Central New Mexico Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas, including most of the Rio Grande and Tularosa Basins No Change: Portions of Southwest New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals: 5.00-7.00” for desert lowlands. 5.00-8.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals: 7.00-10.00” for desert lowlands. 10.00-13.00” over mountain forests. Record-setting September precipitation with multiple rounds of heavy rain. Monthly precipitation 300-400% above normal for most of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Annual precipitation will finish above normal due to recent weeks. Temperature Slightly above normal September temperatures for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. 30-day high temperatures 2-4 degrees above normal September mean average temperature 3.0°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP). Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running well above normal due to recent heavy rains and flooding. Flooding occurred within the Rio Grande and Mimbres Rivers in late September, with the Gila River reached Action Stage. Rivers levels expected to slowly decrease over the next few weeks, but still running above normal for the rest of the month. Elephant Butte storage is at 3.2% capacity, up from last month due to above normal precipitation but still near the historical 30-year minimum. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture well above normal following a historical month of precipitation in September. Outlook leans to above normal precipitation in October, which could keep soil moisture conditions wetter than normal through the end of the harvest season. 2026 Rio Grande irrigation season surface water allotment ended at four inches (4”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire season has ended for Southern New Mexico after a summer of rain. This monsoon season’s above normal precipitation has allowed ERCs to plummet entering October. Fuel moisture will be wetter than normal through the month ahead. New lightning starts or large fire growth is not expected in October. Periods of breezy winds and sudden wind shifts due to cold fronts are possible as the autumn season begins. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River, Mimbres River, and Rio Grande all spiked in late September due to heavy rain. Rio Grande at El Paso reached Minor Flood Stage (crest of 14900 cfs on 10/1) and Gila River above Gila reached Action Stage (crest of 9590 cfs on 9/30). Streamflow expected to slowly decrease in October as floodwaters moves downstream, but remain above normal. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 4.04 ft 11.00 ft 751 ft³/s Redrock 6.35 ft 20.00 ft 358 ft³/s Virden 7.47 ft 15.00 ft 991 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso 4.30 ft 8.50 ft 604 ft³/s Gauge data recorded on 10/3/2026 Image Caption: USGS 7 day Streamflow Status valid October 3, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid October 2, 2026 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index valid September 20-26, 2026 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October 2026 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Much-needed drier weather expected for the first half of October as the Monsoon season ends. Precipitation outlook leans near to above normal for October, which will further improve drought conditions. 2026 yearly precipitation totals will finish above normal for most of the region due to heavy rain in September. Most of Southern New Mexico is already at 150-250% above normal precipitation of 2026. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across Western New Mexico. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to improve considerably through the autumn season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid October 10-16 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance for above normal precipitation for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. October monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.59” 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures for Western New Mexico, Equal Chances elsewhere. October monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 79.4° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to improve considerably across New Mexico and Far West Texas through October. Drought may be fully removed for some areas due to recent heavy rains. Precipitation forecast leaning near to above normal. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook