Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid October 4, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas. Slight drought improvement in September due to thunderstorms. Monsoon season finishes near normal for most of the region. Drought conditions expected to persist in October due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) Southwest New Mexico along the AZ/NM state line. D3 (Extreme Drought) Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties. Gila National Forest. D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Sierra, Luna, and Otero Counties. Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. D1 (Moderate Drought) Lincoln National Forest. Southeast New Mexico (69% of New Mexico, 24% of Texas) D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (80% of New Mexico, 63% of Texas) Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of Southwest New Mexico No Change: Most of Southern New Mexico, Far West Texas Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 1.50-3.00” along I-10 corridor. 3.00-5.00” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 5.00-7.00” along I-10 corridor. 8.00-11.00” over mountain forests. Majority of region saw above normal rainfall in September, improving drought conditions. Summer monsoon season near normal, drier along AZ/NM state line. Temperature Near normal September for New Mexico and Far West Texas 30-day high temperature anomalies near normal September mean average temperatures 2.5°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running near normal after being below normal most of the year. Mimbres River running above normal but receding as the monsoon ends. River levels will be mostly consistent through the fall season, likely falling to below normal by the end of the year. Rio Grande has dried up south of the Caballo Dam, reaching Low Stage at El Paso in mid-August. Elephant Butte storage sits at 3.4% capacity, slightly lower than last month and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains below normal despite summer rains. Further drying is expected this season. Outlook points to below normal precipitation in October. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Low fire danger due to summer rainfall and ERCs near normal for October. Peak fire season has ended with low risk of additional lightning starts this month. No risk of large fire growth in October due to rain and light prevailing winds. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running closer to normal after summer thunderstorms. Gila River spikes occurred September 13, 19, and 26 but remaining below action stage. Mimbres River running above normal with spikes on September 13, 17, and 25. Rio Ruidoso basins running near normal. Rio Grande below Caballo Dam has dried up. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 0.83 ft 11.00 ft 33 ft³/s Redrock 3.73 ft 20.00 ft 13 ft³/s Virden 4.69 ft 15.00 ft 14 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft 6 ft³/s Gauge data recorded on 10/4/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid October 2, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid October 2, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending September 27, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 25, 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected (10/7-10/9). Mostly dry conditions expected the rest of the month. Climate outlook for October leans toward warmer than normal temperatures and drier than normal precipitation. 2025 monsoon season finished near normal for most of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitation was highly variable, but ranged from 80-150% of normal. Drier (50-75% of normal) along the AZ/NM state line. Drought conditions are likely to persist through the autumn season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Severe to Extreme Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the autumn season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid October 11 to 17 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation for Southwest and South-Central New Mexico, 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation for most of Texas. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.59” 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for Southwest New Mexico. 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures for Eastern New Mexico and Texas. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 79.4° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through October due to drier than normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook