Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Drought Information Statement for
Southern NM/Far West TX
Valid October 4, 2025
Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM)
Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov
● This product will be updated November 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.
● Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
● Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
● Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates.
● Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting Southwest New
Mexico and Far West Texas.
● Slight drought improvement in September due to thunderstorms.
Monsoon season finishes near normal for most of the region.
● Drought conditions expected to persist in October due to below
normal precipitation and above normal temperatures.
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas
Drought Intensity and Extent
○ D4 (Exceptional Drought)
Southwest New Mexico along the AZ/NM state line.
○ D3 (Extreme Drought)
Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Grant and
Hidalgo Counties. Gila National Forest.
○ D2 (Severe Drought)
Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana,
Sierra, Luna, and Otero Counties. Far West Texas including El
Paso and Hudspeth Counties.
○ D1 (Moderate Drought)
Lincoln National Forest.
Southeast New Mexico (69% of New Mexico, 24% of Texas)
○ D0 (Abnormally Dry)
Northeast New Mexico (80% of New Mexico, 63% of Texas)
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas
4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change.
○ Drought Worsened:
None
○ Drought Improved:
Portions of Southwest New Mexico
○ No Change:
Most of Southern New Mexico, Far West
Texas
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Precipitation
30-day precip totals,
1.50-3.00” along I-10 corridor.
3.00-5.00” over mountain
forests.
90-day precip totals,
5.00-7.00” along I-10 corridor.
8.00-11.00” over mountain
forests.
Majority of region saw above
normal rainfall in September,
improving drought conditions.
Summer monsoon season
near normal, drier along
AZ/NM state line.
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Temperature
● Near normal September for
New Mexico and Far West
Texas
● 30-day high temperature
anomalies near normal
● September mean average
temperatures 2.5°F above
normal at El Paso
International (KELP)
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts
● Gila River running near normal after being below normal most of the year. Mimbres River running above
normal but receding as the monsoon ends. River levels will be mostly consistent through the fall season,
likely falling to below normal by the end of the year. Rio Grande has dried up south of the Caballo Dam,
reaching Low Stage at El Paso in mid-August. Elephant Butte storage sits at 3.4% capacity, slightly lower
than last month and well below 30-year median. (Texas Water Development Board).
Agricultural Impacts
● Soil moisture remains below normal despite summer rains. Further drying is expected this season. Outlook
points to below normal precipitation in October. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface
water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID)
website or your local municipality for more information.
Fire Hazard Impacts
● Low fire danger due to summer rainfall and ERCs near normal for October. Peak fire season has ended with
low risk of additional lightning starts this month. No risk of large fire growth in October due to rain and light
prevailing winds.
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
● Gila River running closer to normal after summer thunderstorms.
Gila River spikes occurred September 13, 19, and 26 but
remaining below action stage. Mimbres River running above
normal with spikes on September 13, 17, and 25. Rio Ruidoso
basins running near normal. Rio Grande below Caballo Dam has
dried up.
Gila River Stages
Latest Flood Stage Discharge
Gila 0.83 ft 11.00 ft 33 ft³/s
Redrock 3.73 ft 20.00 ft 13 ft³/s
Virden 4.69 ft 15.00 ft 14 ft³/s
Rio Grande Stages
Latest Flood Stage Discharge
El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft 6 ft³/s
Gauge data recorded on 10/4/2025
Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow
HUC map valid October 2, 2025
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Agricultural Impacts
Image Captions:
Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid October 2, 2025
Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending September 27, 2025
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Fire Hazard Impacts
Latest TX Burn Ban map
available here
Latest NM Fire Restrictions
available here
Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential
Monthly Outlook for October 2025
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
● Isolated showers and thunderstorms
expected (10/7-10/9). Mostly dry conditions
expected the rest of the month. Climate
outlook for October leans toward warmer
than normal temperatures and drier than
normal precipitation.
● 2025 monsoon season finished near normal
for most of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. Precipitation was highly variable,
but ranged from 80-150% of normal. Drier
(50-75% of normal) along the AZ/NM state
line. Drought conditions are likely to persist
through the autumn season.
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.
● Severe to Extreme Drought is already in
place across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not
expected. Drought conditions are expected
to persist through the autumn season.
Image Caption:
Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid October 11 to 17
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
● 33-40% chance of below normal
precipitation for Southwest and
South-Central New Mexico,
40-50% chance of below normal
precipitation for most of Texas.
● Monthly average precipitation for
El Paso: 0.59”
● 40-50% chance of above normal
temperatures for Southwest New
Mexico. 50-60% chance of above
normal temperatures for Eastern
New Mexico and Texas.
● Monthly average high
temperature for El Paso: 79.4°
National Weather Service
12:35 AM
October 4, 2025
El Paso, TX
Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
● Drought conditions are expected to
persist through October due to drier than
normal precipitation and above normal
temperatures.
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook