Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid November 3, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought status affecting Southwest New Mexico. Moderate (D1) drought status affecting Far West Texas. Improvement in drought conditions after early October rains, especially for El Paso County. Drought conditions expected to persist in November due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) Portions of Southwest New Mexico including Grant and Hidalgo Counties. Gila National Forest. D2 (Severe Drought) Portions of South-Central New Mexico including Dona Ana, Sierra, Luna, and Otero Counties. D1 (Moderate Drought) Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties, Lincoln National Forest. D0 (Abnormally Dry) Northeast New Mexico (80% of New Mexico, 63% of Texas) Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None Drought Improved: Portions of Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas No Change: Most of Southern and Central New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.50-1.00” along I-10 corridor. 0.75-1.25” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 2.50-4.00” along I-10 corridor. 5.00-8.00” over mountain forests. Above normal October precipitation for El Paso, near or below normal across most of southern New Mexico. Summer monsoon season near normal, drier along AZ/NM state line. Temperature Slightly above normal October for New Mexico and Far West Texas 30-day high temperature anomalies 2-4 degrees above normal October mean average temperature 5.4°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running below normal again as monsoon rains end. Mimbres River and Rio Grande south of the Caballo Dam have both drier up and will likely remain dry through the winter season. River levels will slowly decrease into the winter due to lack of rain or mountain snowpack. Elephant Butte storage sits at 4.3% capacity, slightly higher than last month and near the historical 30-year minimum. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains below normal as the typically drier fall and winter seasons commence. Further drying is expected this season. Outlook points to below normal precipitation in November. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Elevated fire danger this month due to prolonged dryness and ERCs above normal for November. Peak fire season has ended with low risk of lightning starts this month. Periods of strong winds could lead to large fire growth in November. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River running below normal after drier than normal monsoon season. No sudden rises occurred in October. Mimbres River has run dry for the season. Rio Ruidoso basins near normal. Rio Grande below Caballo Dam has dried up. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 1.06 ft 11.00 ft 58 ft³/s Redrock 3.96 ft 20.00 ft 27 ft³/s Virden 4.85 ft 15.00 ft 27 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft 7 ft³/s Gauge data recorded on 11/3/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 3, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid November 2, 2025 Right: National Drought Mitigation Center’s Long-Term Composite Drought Indicator valid November 3, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for November 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Majority of November looks dry for New Mexico and west Texas. 2025 monsoon season finished near normal for most of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitation was highly variable, but ranged from 80-150% of normal. Drier (50-75% of normal) along the AZ/NM state line. Drought conditions are likely to persist through the autumn season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist through the autumn season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid November 11 to 17 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation for New Mexico and west Texas. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.43” 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures for New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 67.0° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist through November due to drier than normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook