Drought Information Statement for Southern NM/Far West TX Valid December 4, 2025 Issued By: NWS El Paso (Santa Teresa, NM) Contact Information: nws.elpaso@noaa.gov This product will be updated January 7, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EPZ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132 for regional drought status updates. Severe (D2) drought status affecting Southern New Mexico. Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate (D1) drought status affecting Far West Texas. Improvement in drought conditions for Southwest New Mexico after mid-November rains. Drought conditions expected to persist or re-develop in December due to near or below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southern New Mexico and far west Texas Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought) None D3 (Extreme Drought) Portions of Western New Mexico including Grant County. D2 (Severe Drought) Most of Southwest and South-central New Mexico, Gila National Forest. D1 (Moderate Drought) Portions of Far West Texas including El Paso and Hudspeth Counties, Lincoln National Forest. D0 (Abnormally Dry) Portions of Far West Texas (83% of New Mexico, 76% of Texas). Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for southern New Mexico and far west Texas 4-Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of Otero County Drought Improved: Portions of Southwest New Mexico No Change: Far West Texas and most of South-central New Mexico Precipitation 30-day precip totals, 0.10-0.50” along I-10 corridor. 0.75-1.50” over mountain forests. 90-day precip totals, 2.50-5.00” along I-10 corridor. 4.50-7.00” over mountain forests. Below normal November precipitation for west Texas, near or above normal across most of southern New Mexico. Autumn rainfall was above normal. Temperature Above normal November temperatures for New Mexico and Texas, closer to normal along AZ-NM state line 30-day high temperature anomalies 3-6 degrees above normal November mean average temperature 5.8°F above normal at El Paso International (KELP) Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Gila River running below normal. Mimbres River and Rio Grande south of the Caballo Dam have both dried up and will likely remain dry through the winter season. River levels will remain dry or slowly decrease into the winter due to lack of precipitation. Elephant Butte storage sits at 5.6% capacity, slightly higher than last month and near the historical 30-year minimum. (Texas Water Development Board). Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains below normal as the typically drier winter season commences. Further drying is expected this season. Outlook points to near normal precipitation in December. 2025 Rio Grande irrigation season has ended with a surface water allotment of six inches (6”) per acre. Please refer to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) website or your local municipality for more information. Fire Hazard Impacts Low fire danger this month due to slight drought improvement this autumn and ERCs near normal for December. Peak fire season has ended with low risk of lightning into the winter months. Periods of strong winds could lead to large fire growth in December as mostly dry conditions prevail. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Gila River and Rio Ruidoso basins running near normal. No sudden rises occurred in November. Mimbres River has run dry for the season. Rio Grande below Caballo Dam has dried up. Gila River Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge Gila 1.39 ft 11.00 ft 110 ft³/s Redrock 4.40 ft 20.00 ft 74 ft³/s Virden 5.15 ft 15.00 ft 62 ft³/s Rio Grande Stages Latest Flood Stage Discharge El Paso Low Stage 8.50 ft None Gauge data recorded on 12/4/2025 Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid December 3, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid December 3, 2025 Right: National Drought Mitigation Center’s Short-Term Crop Moisture Index valid November 29, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending November 29, 2025 Right: Palmer Drought Severity Index. Weekly value for period ending September 27, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Latest TX Burn Ban map available here Latest NM Fire Restrictions available here Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for December 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Majority of December looks dry for New Mexico and west Texas, especially the first half of the month. 2025 autumn season rainfall finished near or above normal for southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitation ranged from 90-170% of normal. Drought conditions are likely to persist into the winter season. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Moderate to Severe Drought is already in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Rapid onset drought is not expected. Drought conditions are expected to persist into the winter season. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid December 11 to 17 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Equal chances of below, near, and above normal precipitation for New Mexico and west Texas. Monthly average precipitation for El Paso: 0.63” 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures for southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Monthly average high temperature for El Paso: 60.5° Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to persist or re-develop through December due to lower than normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook