Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas
Valid October 1, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Contact Information: nws.sanantonio@noaa.gov
This product will be updated November 5, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/EWX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Beneficial rainfall occurred for much of South Central Texas in the months of June/July with improvements noted in short term drought across the board.
Streamflows and reservoirs have trended much higher since the July floods, however, an increasing number of watershed are seeing lower streamflow percentile given the lack of rainfall over the past 30 days. 
The seasonal drought outlook calls for drought to be removed for most, with drought persisting for portions of the Coastal Plains and Austin Metro.
1

U.S. Drought Monitor
U.S. Drought Monitor for South Central Texas
Drought intensity and Extent
D4 (Exceptional Drought): None
Percent of Area: 0%

D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.
Percent of Area: 10.61%

D2 (Severe Drought): Covers portions of the I-35 Corridor, Coastal Plains, and Val Verde County.
Percent of Area: 56.55%

D1 (Moderate Drought): Covers portions of the I-35 Corridor, Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains.
Percent of Area: 80.57%

D0: (Abnormally Dry): Covers portions of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.
Percent of Area: 96.38%
{{DROUGHT_MONITOR}}

Recent Change in Drought Intensity
4-week change map for South Central Texas
Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 

Drought Worsened: Much of South Central Texas.
 
No Change: Portions of the Edwards Plateau.

Drought Improved: None
{{DROUGHT_CHANGE_MAP}}

Precipitation Accumulation and Percent of Normal over the past 30 days
Precipitation
Much of the service area saw below normal rainfall the past 30 days.
Localized pockets saw greater than 100-150% of normal rainfall.
September was a very dry and hot month for the service area.
This does not account for the rainfall observed over the past 24 hours.
{{PRECIPITATION}}

Summary of Impacts
See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts 
The majority of streamflows across the service area remain in the normal to above normal percentile. (USGS)
An increasing number of sporadic sites are starting to show below to much below streamflow percentile as surface runoff was minimal over the past 30 days. (USGS)
Storage in area reservoirs remain low at Medina and Amistad despite recent improvements.
See next page for more details.

Agricultural Impacts
Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife.
Crop moisture index values show near to below normal conditions over the region. (NWS Climate Prediction Center) 

Fire Hazard Impacts
The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook calls for near normal conditions in October and November.
 (National Interagency Coordination Center)   
See Fire Hazard page for more details.

Mitigation Actions
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
The majority of streamflows across the service area fall within the normal to above normal range.

With the lack of surface runoff from less than normal rainfall over the past 30 days has resulted in an increasing number of sites reporting below to much below normal streamflow percentile.

Additional data: 
Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of October 1, 2026:
10 day average: 638.7
Historical Monthly Average: 662.0
Departure from Average: -23.1

 
Reservoir
Pool Elevation 
Current Elevation 
Percent Full
Amistad
1117.00 feet
1056.73 feet
40.3%
Lake Austin
492.9 feet
492.31 feet
96.8%
Lake Buchanan
1020.00 feet
1018.39 feet
95.9%
Canyon Lake
909.00 feet
907.87 feet
97.6%
Georgetown Lake
791.00 feet
783.77 feet
77%
Granger Lake
504.00 feet
503.64 feet
97.2%
Lake LBJ
825.00 feet
824.54 feet
97.4%
Lake Marble Falls
738.00 feet
736.11 feet
92.9%
Medina Lake
1064.2 feet
1020.58 feet
28.6%
Lake Travis
681.00 feet
674.58 feet
89.3%
Figure Caption: Daily historical percentile discharge, valid October 1, 2026.
Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of October 1, 2026
Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid Mar 5, 2026.
{{HYDROLOGIC}}

Crop Moisture Index by Division.
Agricultural Impacts
Crop moisture index values show well below normal values, but rain over the last 24 hours is not in this depiction.
{{AGRICULTURE}}

Fire Hazard Impacts
Keetch Byram Drought Index values of 500-800 are noted across much of the service area.
The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook calls for near normal potential October through December.
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
Burn bans are in effect for 29 of our 33 counties as of October 1, 2026. Latest County Burn Ban map available here.
{{FIRE_WEATHER}}

{{OUTLOOK_8_14_DAY}}

Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Most of the area likely above normal precipitation for the month of October.
Most of the area will be near normal for temperatures for the month of October.

{{OUTLOOK_MONTHLY}}

Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The three month drought outlook shows drought persisting for areas within drought at this time but ending for a good chunk of the area with the exception being the Travis, Williamson, and Bastrop Counties, as well as portions of the Coastal Plains.
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook 
{{OUTLOOK_DROUGHT_SEASONAL}}