Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid October 2, 2025 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 6, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall was observed over the past 30 days. Streamflows continue to trend lower as a very dry September led to a flash drought for portions of the area. Drought outlook does not bode well for improvement through the next 3 months with drier and warmer than normal weather expected to continue. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Covers southeast Medina and northeast Frio. Percent of Area: 1.05% D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of Bexar, Atascosa, Medina, Val Verde, and Kinney counties. Percent of Area: 6.30% D2 (Severe Drought): Covers portions of the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. Percent of Area: 40.60% D1 (Moderate Drought): Encompasses portions of the Coastal Plains, Rio Grande Plains, and I-35 Corridor. Percent of Area: 64.98% U.S. Drought Monitor for south central Texas https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-southern.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4-week change map for south central Texas Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of the I-35 Corridor, Coastal Plains, and northern Hill Country. No Change: I-35 Corridor and portions, southern Hill Country, and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Drought Improved: Portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Precipitation Precipitation Accumulation and Percent of Normal over the past 30 days The majority of the service area saw below to well below normal rainfall over the past 30 days. A swath of 0-25% of normal rainfall occurred over the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. Some beneficial rain fell over portions of the Rio Grande Plains, but it resulted in little to no impact. Summary of Impacts See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of streamflows across the service area fall within the Normal to Below Normal range (USGS) Storage remains near all time lows at Medina, with Canyon Lake and Amistad remaining below normal. See next page for more details. Agricultural Impacts Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife. Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the near normal range as of October 4th. (NWS Climate Prediction Center) Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire danger is expected for the month of October. (National Interagency Coordination Center) See Fire Hazard page for more details. Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 10/2/2025) City of Uvalde: Stage 5 City of Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Kerrville: Stage 2 City of San Antonio: Stage 3 City of Universal City: Stage 3 City of Llano: Stage 1 City of Georgetown: Stage 1 City of New Braunfels: Stage 2 City of Austin: Stage 2 City of Del Rio: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1057.49 feet 35.9% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.03 feet 95.0% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 1018.16 feet 95.3% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 891.28 feet 66.2% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 784.05 feet 77.8% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 503.76 feet 98.1% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.69 feet 98.2% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.40 feet 95.2% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 982.73 feet 5.7% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 671.25 feet 84.1% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid Oct 4, 2025. Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of Oct 5, 2025. The majority of streamflows across the service area fall within the Normal to below normal percentile. Several watersheds along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains fall within the below normal to much below normal percentile. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of Oct 5, 2025: 10 day average: 628.8 Historical Monthly Average: 662.4 Departure from Average: -33.4 Agricultural Impacts Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile and Crop Moisture Index by Division. Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the near to below normal range as of October 4th. Crop moisture index values show near normal conditions to below normal conditions due to lack of recent rain in the month of September. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values of 600-800 are noted for much of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. Values range between 200-600 for the remainder of the service area. The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook calls for above normal fire potential in October. Burn bans remain for 20 of our 33 counties as of Oct 3, 2025. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for the month of October shows above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook the month of October leans towards below normal precipitation. Drought Outlook The monthly drought outlook for October shows drought persisting for many and developing for the remainder of the service area. The three month drought outlook shows drought persisting for many and developing for the remainder of the service area. Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage