Drought Information Statement for South Central Texas Valid November 6, 2025 Issued By: NWS Austin/San Antonio Contact Information: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 4, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ewx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall was observed over most of the service area over the past 30 days. Streamflows continue to trend lower as a very dry Sep/Oct led to a flash drought for portions of the area. Drought outlook does not bode well for improvement through the next 3 months with drier and warmer than normal weather expected to continue. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None. Percent of Area: 0.00% D3 (Extreme Drought): Covers portions of Bexar, Atascosa, Frio, Medina, Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, Karnes, DeWitt, and Wilson counties. Percent of Area: 12.20% D2 (Severe Drought): Covers portions of the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. Percent of Area: 44.58% D1 (Moderate Drought): Encompasses portions of the Coastal Plains, Rio Grande Plains, and I-35 Corridor. Percent of Area: 77.95% U.S. Drought Monitor for south central Texas https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-southern.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4-week change map for south central Texas Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of the Coastal Plains, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and southern portion of the Rio Grande Plains. No Change: Large portions of South Central Texas along I-35. Drought Improved: Portions of the Edwards Plateau, northern portion of the Rio Grande Plains, and a few areas along the I-35 Corridor. Precipitation Links to the latest Precipitation Accumulation and Percent of Normal over the past 30 days The majority of the service area saw below to well below normal rainfall over the past 30 days. A swath of 25-75% of normal rainfall occurred over most of the area. Some beneficial rain fell over portions of the Rio Grande Plains that helped to remove exceptional drought from the region. Temperature Summarize conditions/impacts here Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of streamflows across the service area fall within the Normal to Below Normal range (USGS) Storage remains near all time lows at Medina, with Canyon Lake and Amistad remaining below normal. See next page for more details. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop & Weather Report from Texas A&M Agrilife. Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the well below normal range as of November 4. (NWS Climate Prediction Center) Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire danger is expected for the month of November. (National Interagency Coordination Center) See Fire Hazard page for more details. Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Select Municipality Restrictions (as of 11/6/2025) City of Uvalde: Stage 5 City of Fredericksburg: Stage 4 City of Kerrville: Stage 2 City of San Antonio: Stage 3 City of Universal City: Stage 3 City of Llano: Stage 1 City of Georgetown: Stage 1 City of New Braunfels: Stage 2 City of Austin: Stage 2 City of Del Rio: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Reservoir Pool Elevation Current Elevation Percent Full Amistad 1117.00 feet 1057.59 feet 36% Lake Austin 492.9 feet 492.25 feet 96.4% Lake Buchanan 1020.00 feet 1018.13 feet 95.2% Canyon Lake 909.00 feet 890.04 feet 64.2% Georgetown Lake 791.00 feet 784.05 feet 72.7% Granger Lake 504.00 feet 503.62 feet 97% Lake LBJ 825.00 feet 824.65 feet 98% Lake Marble Falls 738.00 feet 736.42 feet 95.4% Medina Lake 1064.2 feet 981.48 feet 5.3% Lake Travis 681.00 feet 669.02 feet 80.8% Figure Caption: USGS 7 day streamflows for Texas, valid Nov 4, 2025. Table caption: TWDB Reservoir conditions as of Nov 6, 2025 The majority of streamflows across the service area fall within the Normal to below normal percentile. Several watersheds along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains fall within the below normal to much below normal percentile. Additional data: Edwards Aquifer, Bexar Index Well J-17 as of Nov 5, 2025: 10 day average: 626.5 Historical Monthly Average: 665.7 Departure from Average: -39.4 Agricultural Impacts Links to the latest Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile and Crop Moisture Index by Division. Soil moistures across the service area are shown in the well below normal range as of November 4th. Crop moisture index values show severely dry conditions despite some recent rainfall. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch Byram Drought Index values of 500-800 are noted for much of the region. Values range between 200-500 for the Edwards Plateau. The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook calls for above normal fire potential in November. Burn bans remain for 29 of our 33 counties as of Nov 5, 2025. Latest County Burn Ban map available here. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast No rainfall is forecast in south-central TX over the coming week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Continued hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks will lead to continued Rapid Onset Drought impacts in south-central Texas. Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for the month of November leans towards above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook the month of November leans towards below normal precipitation. Drought Outlook The monthly drought outlook for November shows drought persisting for many and developing for some. The three month drought outlook shows drought persisting for many and developing for the remainder of the service area. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage