Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid April 20, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around May 15, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Near normal precipitation over the past month. Little change in drought status, with widespread severe to extreme drought. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Extreme southwest Yavapai County. D3 (Extreme Drought): Gila County, much of Yavapai County, southern Navajo and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Southern/western Coconino County, central Navajo and Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: One class degradation for parts of southern Navajo and Apache counties. No Change: most of Arizona. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 25% of normal over far northern and eastern Arizona. A small area from the Flagstaff region to the central Mogollon Rim has received 75-100% of normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year in much of northern and central Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is lower than normal and may lead to poor forage conditions through the spring. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary following a more typical winter. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has decreased into the low to moderate category in the high country temporarily due to rain and snow received on April 18th. Less precipitation fell over the winter in the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest and fire restrictions are already in effect, much earlier than normal. There is a potential for an extended and significant fire season if dry weather persists through spring and early summer. Other Impacts Winter recreation was impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of northern and central Arizona is less than the 25th percentile for this time of year. Some of the normally wettest areas of the state along the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains are experiencing much below normal streamflow values in the 10th percentile or lower. Agricultural Impacts Most of northern and central Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the 1st to 5th percentile. Forage for ranching purposes was less abundant than normal in summer 2024 due to a drier than usual monsoon season. Ranchers are continuing to haul water to livestock due to the drier than normal winter. Low soil moisture could lead to poor spring forage. Fire Hazard Impacts By May and June, the typical peak of fire season, there is an above normal potential for significant wildland fire in most of Arizona. Due to lower than normal precipitation over the winter and early spring, there is a potential of an extended and significant wildfire season. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for May through July from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal temperatures in Arizona. There are equal chances of above, below, and near normal precipitation. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over the state through the end July.