Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid June 28, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around July 17, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates?dews_region=130&state=139 for regional updates. Some drought improvement in parts of central and northern Arizona over the past month due to areas of above normal rainfall. Some of the most significant rain was in early June along the Mogollon Rim and in Yavapai County. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Gila County, and far southern Yavapai, Navajo, and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Far western/northern Coconino County, southern/western Yavapai, central Navajo and Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Northern Yavpai, and the remainder of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Improved: One class improvement for much of Yavapai County, and portions of Coconino County. No Change: most of Arizona. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 50% of normal over far northern and eastern Arizona. Areas along the Mogollon Rim and Yavapai County have received 100-200% of normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is below normal for this time of year in much of eastern Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is lower than normal, leading to areas of poor forage conditions. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary following a more typical winter. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has continued to increase after a brief downturn in early June. National Forests and state/BLM lands have entered fire restrictions. A large fire (Greer Fire - 20,000 acres) started May 13 during high winds and low humidity. Other Impacts Winter recreation was impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of eastern Arizona is less than the 10-25th percentile for this time of year. Some of the normally wettest areas of the state along the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains are experiencing much below normal streamflow values in the 10th percentile or lower. Agricultural Impacts Most of northern Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the to 10th to 20th percentile. This is a significant improvement over values reported in late May. Forage for ranching purposes is less abundant than normal in most areas. Ranchers are continuing to haul water to livestock due to the drier than normal winter. Fire Hazard Impacts Significant wildland fire potential is forecast to decrease to the normal range in July and August with the expectation of the monsoon developing. Above normal significant wildland fire potential is forecast for July in far northwest Arizona into southern Utah. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The first monsoon moisture of the season is forecast to arrive in parts of central and northern Arizona the week of June 29 to July 5. Some minor drought relief could occur with the resulting rainfall. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for July through September from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal temperatures in Arizona. The precipitation outlook now calls for equal chances of above, near, and below normal rainfall. Earlier outlooks indicated a slight leaning toward wetter than normal conditions. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over most of the state through the end of September. However, some improvement is predicted in southeast Arizona including the White Mountains region.