Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid August 7, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around August 21, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates?dews_region=130&state=139 for regional updates. Moderate to Extreme Drought continues due to a dry start to monsoon season. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Gila County, far southern Yavapai, Navajo, and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Far western/northern Coconino County, southern/western Yavapai, central Navajo and Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Northern Yavapai, and the remainder of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Improved: One class improvement for portions of the Mogollon Rim and southern Navajo County. Drought Worsened: One class degradation for the area north of Flagstaff and a portion of the Chuska Mountains. No Change: most of Arizona. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 25% of normal over far northern and eastern Arizona. Areas along the Mogollon Rim and Yavapai County have received 100% to locally 200% of normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year in central and northern Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is lower than normal, leading to areas of poor forage conditions. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary following a more typical winter and monsoon season. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has increased after a brief downturn in early June. Most National Forests and state/BLM lands are in fire restrictions. Several large fires have occurred, including the Dragon Bravo and White Sage in the particularly hard hit areas of far northwest Coconino County. Other Impacts Winter recreation was impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of central and northern Arizona is less than the 10th percentile for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Most of the northwest half of Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the to 1st to 10th percentile. This is significant as it is normally a wet time of year. Forage for ranching purposes is less abundant than normal in most areas. Ranchers are continuing to haul water to livestock due to the drier than normal winter through mid summer period. Fire Hazard Impacts Significant wildland fire potential is forecast to be above normal during August from the Mogollon Rim into northern Arizona due to a weak monsoon season. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Light monsoon rainfall is forecast August 7-13 for the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Little to no rainfall is forecast for much of the rest of northern and western Arizona. Long-Range Outlooks The latest outlooks for August through October from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal temperatures in Arizona. The precipitation outlook calls for equal chances of above, near, and below normal rainfall in Yavapai, Gila, and southern Navajo and Apache Counties. The remainder of northern Arizona is leaning toward drier than normal. Drought Outlook Drought conditions are forecast to persist over most of the state through the end of October.