Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid September 1, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around September 20, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates?dews_region=130&state=139 for regional updates. Moderate to Extreme Drought continues. Some minor relief is possible through the first week of September as monsoon rainfall increases. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the southwest United States Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Gila County, far southern Yavapai, Navajo, and Apache counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Far western/northern Coconino County, much of Yavapai, portions of Navajo and most of Apache counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Northern Yavapai, and the remainder of Coconino and Navajo counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for the southwest United States Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: One class degradation for central Coconino County including Flagstaff and a much of Apache County. Two class degradation for a small portion of the Chuska Mountains. No Change: most of Arizona. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 25% of normal over far northern and eastern Arizona. Areas along the Mogollon Rim and Yavapai County have received 50-75% of normal, with locally higher values of 125%. Temperature Yavapai and Gila County were slightly cooler than normal over the past 30 days. The remainder of northern Arizona experienced near to slightly above normal temperatures. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much below normal for this time of year in eastern Arizona. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is much lower than normal, leading to areas of poor forage conditions. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary following a more typical winter and monsoon season. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has decreased in most areas, even with less than normal monsoon rain. Most National Forests and state/BLM lands are still in fire restrictions. Several large fires have occurred, including the Dragon Bravo and White Sage in the particularly hard hit areas of far northwest Coconino County. Other Impacts Winter recreation was impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over much of eastern Arizona is less than the 10th percentile for this time of year. Areas farther west are in the normal range. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid August 29, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Most of the northwest half of Arizona is reporting soil moisture in the to 1st to 10th percentile. This is significant as it is normally a wet time of year. Forage for ranching purposes is less abundant than normal in most areas. Ranchers are continuing to haul water to livestock due to the drier than normal winter through mid summer period. Fire Hazard Impacts Significant wildland fire potential is forecast to decrease into the normal range for September and October. The potential has been high most of the summer due to a weak monsoon season, with several large fires occurring. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Moderate to locally heavy monsoon rainfall is forecast for the period of September 1-7 for areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Little to no rainfall is forecast for much of northeast Arizona north of the Mogollon Rim. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for September through November from the Climate Prediction Center indicate that above normal temperatures are likely. The precipitation outlook is leaning towards drier than normal conditions. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over Arizona through at least the end of November. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook