Drought Information Statement for Northern Arizona Valid October 16, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Flagstaff, AZ Contact Information: nws.flagstaff@noaa.gov This product will be updated around November 20, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Drought for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates?dews_region=130&state=139 for regional updates. Drought improved over much of central and northern Arizona due to heavy rainfall in late September and mid October. Extreme Drought continues in parts of Apache County. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Apache County. D2 (Severe Drought): Far western/northern Coconino County, much of Navajo County. D1 (Moderate Drought): Central/eastern Yavapai, central Gila, central Coconino counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Improved: Significant 2 class and localized 3 class improvements in Gila County and extreme southern Coconino County along the Mogollon Rim. 1 class improvement southeast Yavapai, and portions of southern Coconino and Yavapai including Flagstaff and Show Low. No Change: Much of northern Arizona. Precipitation 120-Day Precipitation is less than 50% over far northern and eastern Arizona. Areas along the Mogollon Rim, Gila and Yavapai counties have received 100-200% of normal, with locally higher values of 200%+. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is much above normal for mid October. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is lower than normal in northwest Arizona, leading to areas of poor forage conditions. Ranchers are reporting that they are hauling water to livestock and that this would not be necessary following a more typical winter and monsoon season. Some of the recent rainfall may have been too late in the season to have much impact on forage as temperatures get colder. Soil moisture has returned to normal levels in central Arizona. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has decreased due to recent rainfall. Other Impacts Winter 2024-25 recreation was impacted due to the lack of snowpack at higher elevations. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow over most of central and northern Arizona is much above normal due to recent rainfall. Agricultural Impacts Parts of northwest Arizona are in the 10th to 30th percentile - drier than normal. Much of central and especially southern Arizona have near to above normal soil moisture. Forage for ranching was less abundant than normal this summer in most areas. Ranchers continued to haul water to livestock due to the drier than normal winter through mid summer period. Recent rains may have been too late in the season to improve forage, but stock tanks in many areas refilled at least partially. Fire Hazard Impacts Significant wildland fire potential is forecast to be in the normal range through the end of the year. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest outlooks for November through January from the Climate Prediction Center indicate that above normal temperatures are likely. The precipitation outlook is leaning towards drier than normal conditions. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are forecast to persist over Arizona through at least the end of January, 2026.