Drought Information Statement for North and Central Texas
Valid October 20, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TX
Contact Information: sr-fwd.webmaster@noaa.gov
This product will be updated November 25, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/fwd/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. 

Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions persist across North and Central Texas despite the heavy rainfall that occurred at the start of the month.

Drought conditions are generally expected to persist, but improve through the remainder of the fall season. 


U.S. Drought Monitor
Drought intensity and Extent

D4 (Exceptional Drought): None

D3 (Extreme Drought): Lamar Co. and portions of the following counties: Delta, Hopkins, Falls, Robertson, and Milam. Locations adjacent to the Red River in Fannin County.

D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of western North and Central Texas including the Big Country. Along and near the I-35/35E corridor, from Dallas to the Hill Country. Far eastern North Texas. 

D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of North and Central TX, west of I-35/35W and east of I-45.

D0 (Abnormally Dry): Portions of southern Lampasas and Cooke Counties.


Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change: 

Drought Worsened: 
Areas along and east of the I-35 corridor in Central Texas, and portions of Young, Stephens, Eastland, Comanche, and Hopkins counties has seen a one to two class degradation. 

No Change:
Much of East Texas.

Drought Improved: 
Most of North Texas and parts of western Central Texas has seen a one to two class improvements.


Precipitation
Over the last 30 days (ending at 7 am CDT October 19, 2026), rainfall totals range from 2 to 8 inches, with a few isolated areas along the Red River with totals exceeding 10 inches. 

This corresponds to greater than 100% of normal for most areas along east of I-35/35E, with much of eastern North and Central Texas ranging from around 85% of normal or less. 


Temperature
Over the last 7 days, temperatures swung from well-above normal (10-15°F) to below normal (7-10°F) as the first strong cold front of the season swept through the region. 

Max temperatures over the last 30 days averaged around 5-8°F above normal across most of the region. 


Summary of Impacts
Hydrologic Impacts 
Increased surface runoff from above-normal rainfall early in the month resulted in a large number of sites reporting near-normal to above-normal streamflow.
Below normal streamflow still noted in a few areas along the Brazos River in western Central Texas and the Sabine River in eastern North Texas into East Texas.

Agricultural Impacts
Despite the multi-day period of heavy rainfall early in the month, dry conditions persist and continue to have significant impacts on livestock and agriculture.
Soil moisture has improved (now ranking between the 30th and 70th percentile) for all areas except for East Texas and eastern Central Texas (generally S of I-20 and E of I-35/45). 

Fire Hazard Impacts
In response to recent rains, several counties across North and Central Texas have dropped the Outdoor Burn Bans that persisted through much of the summer. 
As of 10/19/26, Outdoor Burn Bans are in effect for 23 of the 46 counties in our forecast area.

Mitigation Actions
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.


Fire Hazard Impacts
Lingering Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions across East Texas supports the persistence of above normal fire potential across eastern North Texas through November. 


Long-Range Outlooks
There is no clear signal for temperatures being above or below normal across North and Central Texas through the month of November.

There is approximately a 40-50% probability of above-normal precipitation during the month of November.


Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The current seasonal drought outlook, covering the mid October through January period, indicates that drought conditions are expected to improve or end through the next 3 months.