Drought Information Statement for Tri-State Area Valid April, 04, 2024 Issued By: NWS Goodland, Kansas Contact Information: nws.goodland@noaa.gov This product will be updated by the 5th of each month or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/GLD/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Drought has improved across the east from March snow and rain. Regions average last freeze date is approaching Transition to La Nina this Summer 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for High Plains Image Caption: Goodland County Warning Area Drought Monitor. Valid Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Graham D1 (Moderate Drought): Rawlins, Decatur, Norton D0: (Abnormally Dry): Dundy, Hitchcock, Red Willow, Thomas, Sheridan, Gove 6am MDT Apr 03, 2024 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for CONUS 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Improved: Dundy, Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton, Decatur, Rawlins, Thomas, Sheridan, Graham, Gove, Cheyenne (KS). Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 6am MDT Apr 03, 2024 Precipitation Above normal precipitation fell across the month of March mainly for locales along and north of I-70 in the form of rain and snow. Perhaps the largest contributor to this was the severe weather event on March 24th where a large Mesoscale Convective System developed which brought much needed rainfall especially to the eastern portion of the area. Image Captions: Right - Monthly Precipitation Amount for Tri-State Area Left - Percent of Normal Monthly Precipitation for Tri-State Area Data Courtesy of MRMS. Date Valid: Apr 03 2024 Temperature Much of the area saw above normal to near normal temperatures for March with the relative warmest out to the east. Despite the above normal temperatures, precipitation has been just enough to help keep drought from expanding. Image Captions: Right - Average Temperature Left - Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Date Valid: Apr 03 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found here USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found here Fire Hazard Impacts Continued vegetation dormancy will continue to lead to some fire risk (especially on hot/dry/windy days) as the average last freeze date is still around a month away. Some burn bans do continue across portions of the region as well. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Average streamflow across the region; specifically the Tri-State area remains below normal to much below normal. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid Apr 03 2024 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture is neither favored to be dry or wet across the Tri-State area. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending March 30th, 2024 Apr 03 2024 Fire Hazard Impacts Wildland Fire Potential looks to be above normal as most vegetation currently remains in winter dormancy; although some budding on trees, etc has been seen. Relative highest fire potential as of this issuance does look to lie across eastern Colorado where the Energy Release Component (ERC) lies in the 30-40th percentile and lessens further to the east. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. April 2024 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A strong low pressure system looks to develop this weekend with the potential for some light rainfall; further east is the potential for some severe weather given the higher forecasted precipitation forecast. Dependent on the track of the low the heaviest precipitation axis may shift further east or may shift back west in coming days. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday April 4 to Thursday April 11 Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Not Applicable at this time. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Continued signal for equal chances to above normal temperatures and precipitation for the Tri-State area. A continued “active” pattern looks to continue with periods of troughing over the west transitioning to periods of ridging leads to the relative no clear signal for a favored above or below temperature/precipitation signal. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid April 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is forecasted to come to an end and/or improve. As we continue enter spring time the risk for thunderstorms/heavy rainfall will help areas of continued drought. This does seem reasonable as the transition from El Nino to ENSO neutral continues this spring which typically does favor a more active period of thunderstorms, especially for the east. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released Valid: Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook April 2024 Mar 31, 2024 Average Last Freeze Dates Goodland: May 5th McCook: May 2nd Burlington: May 6th Hill City: April 28th Goodland Forecast Area ASOS Sites Only The region is rapidly approaching the climatological average last freeze date with locales across the east occurring towards the end of this month. Some budding on trees has been evident over the past week or so which may lead to an increase risk in some impacts occurring leading up to these dates; especially if another strong cold front where to impact the region. La Nina Returning This Summer Goodland Forecast Area ASOS Sites Only As of March 14th, a La Nina Watch has been issued by the Climate Prediction Center with ~60% chance of La Nina returning during the June, July, August timeframe. Will need to keep a close eye on precipitation this spring as La Nina typically does favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. A drier than anticipated spring may bring the return of widespread drought/flash drought potential this summer. ONI < -0.5 is La Nina ONI > 0.5 is El Nino Contact Information For feedback, comments, questions specific to the Drought Information Statement please reach out to: nws.goodland@noaa.gov or tyler.trigg@noaa.gov