Drought Information Statement for the Tri-State Area Valid November 01, 2023 Issued By: WFO Goodland Kansas Contact Information: 785-899-2360, nws.goodland@noaa.gov This product will be updated by the 5th of each month or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gld/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for High Plains Image Caption: Goodland County Warning Area Drought Monitor. Valid Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Graham D2 (Severe Drought): Norton, Decatur, Gove D1 (Moderate Drought): Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins, Sheridan, Thomas, Sherman D0: (Abnormally Dry): Greeley, Logan Yuma, Kit Carson, Dundy, Hitchcock, Red Willow 6am MDT Nov 01, 2023 Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for CONUS 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS), Greeley No Change: Kit Carson, Hitchcock, Red Willow, Rawlins, Decatur, Norton, Sherman, Thomas, Sheridan, Graham, Logan, Gove Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 6am MDT Nov 01, 2023 Precipitation October was again a dry month across the area. The majority of the area saw less than 25% of their normal precipitation for the month. The prolonged drier period and colder, killing freezes will create fuels that would be favorable for wildfire growth, as the fall is the areas windiest month. Image Captions: Right - Monthly Precipitation Amount for Tri-State Area Left - Percent of Normal Monthly Precipitation for Tri-State Area Data Courtesy of MRMS. Date Valid: Nov 01 2023 Temperature Temperatures across the area were near normal to below normal. The lack of “warmer” temperatures perhaps did help mitigate how much the drought degraded over the past month. As warmer/hotter temperatures would further exacerbate drying conditions. Image Captions: Right - Average Temperature Left - Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Date Valid: Nov 01 2023 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts Overall dryness of the past few months may have an impact on winter wheat this upcoming season. Fire Hazard Impacts Fuels are becoming more favorable for wildfire spread due to lack of precipitation and the entire area seeing a hard freeze. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid Nov 01 2023 Agricultural Impacts Continuing dry conditions may have impacts on the winter wheat crop across the area. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 28, 2023 Nov 01 2023 Fire Hazard Impacts Although not highlighted, Fall/Winter is the height of the fire season in the area along with the windiest. The past few months of dryer conditions may help further exacerbate this. The excess growth of vegetation from this spring/summers abundant rainfall also may bring extra fuels as well. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. November 2023 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Summarize conditions here Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday April 21 to Friday April 28 Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Signals continue to point towards above normal temperatures for the area for the month of November. However there is no clear signal towards above or below when it comes to precipitation. Chances for rain/snow are possible as El Nino remains which is typically favorable for above normal precipitation for the region. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 2023 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage As mentioned before El Nino is forecast to continue through the winter and this typically favors above normal precipitation. The drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center represents that potential as currently no additional drought is forecast to develop; some may end all together as a matter of fact. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released Valid: Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook November 2023-January 2024 Oct 31, 2023