Drought Information Statement for Central and Northeast Wisconsin Valid March 8, 2024 Issued By: WFO Green Bay, WI Contact Information: nws.greenbay@noaa.gov This product will be updated by April 8, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/grb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. [area] can be a single WFO CWA, or can be a different geographic area in the case of collaborated products Webmaster email or public phone line likely preferred, but individuals may choose to include their contact information directly. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the Midwest Drought Intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Continues generally north of a Tomahawk to Antigo to Iron Mountain line. D1 (Moderate Drought) & D0 (Abnormally Dry) Continues generally south of a Tomahawk to Antigo to Iron Mountain line. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 7 am EST March 7, 2024. THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED Geography Availability: United States WFO: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_wfoabq_text.png Where it says “wfoabq” change the last 3 letters to the desired CWA in terms of “wfoxxx” (excluding SJU, PPG, or GUM, only regional data available) State: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to the state’s abbreviation Regional: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to either of the following… Caribbean → current_caribbean_text Pacific Islands→current_usapi_text Ex; southeast → current_southeast_text Ex; midwest → current_midwest_text Ex; high plains → current_high_planes_text Ex; south → current_south_text pdf National (including HI, AK, and PR): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm.png USAPI and Virgin Islands: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm_pg2.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Midwest Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought continues to worsen across Vilas County. A second area of worsening drought conditions extended southwest Marathon and northern Wood counties eastward into Menominee, Shawano and northern Waupaca counties. No change or some slight worsening of drought conditions prevailed across the remainder of the area. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 7 am EST March 5, 2024. Note: some OCONUS offices (i.e. Guam and Pago Pago) may not have access to change maps. You can hide this slide, and discuss recent drought changes on slide 1 if you wish. Feel free to use other timescales if they tell a better story, or hide this slide if there’s no notable changes in your region. 4 weeks is a good default if you’re producing this product ~once per month as required by the directive. 1-Week Monitor Class Change (replace CHS with your WFO ID): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_1W.png Comparison of current drought monitor with drought monitor from 4 weeks ago for a desired WFO station: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_4W.png Changing date: Replace where it says “current” twice with the date in terms of “YYYYMMDD” Ex; July 5th, 2022 → 20220705 Precipitation Much of north-central and northeast Wisconsin has received less than 70% of the normal precipitation over the last month. The driest conditions were noted across Vilas County, and from portions of central Wisconsin northeast into Marinette and Oconto counties. Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for Wisconsin Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Wisconsin Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending March 6, 2024 THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED. The time frame used and precipitation source can be different, but you must include this slide. If longer-term drought is dominating in your region, you can use longer-timescale imagery to support that message. All data can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?maps=ACISClimateMaps If you prefer a higher resolution precip source such as AHPS (https://water.weather.gov/precip/), that’s also okay but will have to be added manually each time. If little to no imagery is available for your area (i.e. USAPI) you may consider a data table. Some USAPI precipitation imagery available here:https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202303#regional-usapi and here: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update Pacific Island Climate Update for ENSO: Monthly Reports, find the link to the latest PDF on this site: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update and consider linking to it here if it’s not too out of date MSWEP: https://www.gloh2o.org/mswep/ may be another option. Other options: Precipitation Station Data from USGS: Stations in each State: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/al/nwis/current/?type=precip&group_key=NONE To change state, alter link where it says “/al/” and change to desired state’s abbreviation. Homepage: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis Precipitation Reports for Basins from WCC Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BPrecip_8_2022.pdf Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Temperature The effects of El Nino are still being felt across the region. The winter of 2023-24 went down in the record books as the warmest winter on record. The warmth continued during the first week of March, with average temperatures running 10 to 17 degrees above normal. Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Wisconsin Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Wisconsin Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending March 6, 2024 Abnormal warmth or coolness can play a role in the rate of evaporation and thus accelerate or slow drought development and spread. If you feel this is currently playing a role, you can include this slide, otherwise leave it skipped. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts There is no snow cover on the ground as of March 7. The dry weather will result in a low risk of ice jans across far northern Wisconsin. Agricultural Impacts No agricultural impacts so far this year. Fire Hazard Impacts The fire danger is in the moderate category, however the lack of precipitation could lead to an active spring fire season if we don’t get some precipitation soon. Unseasonably mild air on March 12 and March 13 could lead to elevated fire conditions. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED Briefly summarize known impacts and mitigation actions here for each of the categories. If there are no known impacts, you may state that. If you’d like to include more information and images by sector, feel free to utilize any of the following four slides you wish, but they are NOT required. You may also link in the slide to your state’s USDM State Impact page: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/StateImpacts.aspx Also can optionally include any mitigation actions being taken, i.e. local water use restrictions. If none known, perhaps refer users to their local municipalities for more info. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Rivers are running well below normal across north-central Wisconsin. River levels elsewhere are running below the normal March spring melt. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid March 6, 2024 You may consider the following (scroll down for options): For western states, snow water information A table with current reservoir & lake levels/storage Groundwater info Soil moisture (can also be included in agricultural impacts section) Streamflow data from USGS https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/ - USE THE HUC MAPS PLEASE! This can be set to auto-update for a single timescale (7 day avg streamflow is often a good option, all you’d need to do is change the ‘tx’ at the end of the link in the app to your state ID in lower case) HYDROLOGICAL STATUS (Be sure to mention the source of the impact that’s being cited) Streamflow USGS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Geography Availability: United States State: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Use drop down menu to change state on website (excluding Pacific Islands) Pacific Islands: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/gu/nwis/rt Water-Resources Region Date Real-Time (To access any of the time series below, hover cursor over “Current Streamflow” on the left side of the website. Other time scales not available for Pacific Islands) Yesterday 7-Day 14-Day 28-Day Month Homepage: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=ww Soil Moisture Drought.gov: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture Geography Availability: CONUS National Date Daily Homepage: https://www.drought.gov/ Groundwater USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=gw&group_key=state_cd Geography: Availability: United States Use drop-down menu called “Geographic Area” to access area desired. Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ Reservoir and Lake Levels USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=lake&group_key=state_cd Geography Availability: United States Stations separated by state Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ WCC Reservoir Storage: Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BRes_8_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date: Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ SnowPack WCC Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BSnow_6_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted Homepage https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Agricultural Impacts The calculated soil moisture ranking percentile continues to show drier than normal conditions across much of the area, with the worst conditions along the Upper Michigan border. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid March 6, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending March 2, 2024 If you have notable images of agricultural impacts and permission to share them, they can be included on this slide. Consider linking to crop and weather reports or other resources. National resources: NASS crop progress reports: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Other.aspx Percentage of various crops affected by drought: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Home.aspx table: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2 Regional resource for the midwest: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/U2U/ Fire Hazard Impacts The potential for wildfires is expected to remain above normal in March due to the drought conditions and expected above normal temperatures at times throughout the month. Usually, March into early April is usually when the snow pack disappears. That has already occurred this winter/spring. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for March 2024 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Wisconsin Fire Danger Map If using this slide: Please limit to 2 total images per slide. NICC outlook maps are set to auto-update. New maps are produced on the first weekday of each month (see direct links below) Can also include Burn Ban info here If your area or state has other parameters available (i.e KBDI, ERC, etc) you can add these as well. 1-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png 2-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month2_outlook.png 3-Month:https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month3_outlook.png 4-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month4_outlook.png Homepage: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Meager precipitation amounts are expected over northern Wisconsin during the next week. The system bringing rain to east-central Wisconsin on March 8th is trending southward, thus precipitation totals may be slightly lower there over the next week. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday Mar 8 through Friday Mar 15 Use a polygon to highlight your region if using this WPC QPF map. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The climate models are indicating a greater chance for above normal temperatures to continue in March and through the spring (March-May). Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Optional Slide to set up/support outlook slide 14. Choose one timescale with the most relevant drought message (monthly or seasonal) and move the corresponding outlook images/captions onto the slide. Move the other images off slide, but do not delete! Make sure you edit the caption box to match the image. There are multiple versions of the Monthly outlooks here because it is issued once on the 3rd thursday of each month and then updated on the final day of each month. Monthly Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Seasonal Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html USAPI: Can consider including imagery from NMME, C3S, BOM and NIWA if appropriate and useful, but can use this on slide 13 to support drought outlook message since there’s no official CPC outlook for your region. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The climate models are indicating a greater chance for below normal precipitation in March. The climate models were not favoring any one category for the spring (March-May). Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Optional Slide to set up/support outlook slide 14. Choose one timescale with the most relevant drought message (monthly or seasonal) and move the corresponding outlook images/captions onto the slide. Move the other images off slide, but do not delete! Make sure you edit the caption box to match the image. There are multiple versions of the Monthly outlooks here because it is issued once on the 3rd thursday of each month and then updated on the final day of each month. Monthly Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Seasonal Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html USAPI: Can consider including imagery from NMME, C3S, BOM and NIWA if appropriate and useful, but can use this on slide 13 to support drought outlook message since there’s no official CPC outlook for your region. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to persist across much of the area this spring. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released on February 29, 2024 valid for March 1 to May 31, 2024 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.