Drought Information Statement for Central and Northeast Wisconsin Valid April 11, 2024 Issued By: WFO Green Bay, WI Contact Information: nws.greenbay@noaa.gov This product will be updated by May 2, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/grb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. [area] can be a single WFO CWA, or can be a different geographic area in the case of collaborated products Webmaster email or public phone line likely preferred, but individuals may choose to include their contact information directly. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the Midwest Drought Intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Continues across the northwest third of Vilas County. D1 (Moderate Drought) / D0 (Abnormally Dry) Continues across north-central WI except across the northwest third of Vilas County, and over central and far northeast Wisconsin. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8 am EDT April 11, 2024. THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED Geography Availability: United States WFO: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_wfoabq_text.png Where it says “wfoabq” change the last 3 letters to the desired CWA in terms of “wfoxxx” (excluding SJU, PPG, or GUM, only regional data available) State: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to the state’s abbreviation Regional: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to either of the following… Caribbean → current_caribbean_text Pacific Islands→current_usapi_text Ex; southeast → current_southeast_text Ex; midwest → current_midwest_text Ex; high plains → current_high_planes_text Ex; south → current_south_text pdf National (including HI, AK, and PR): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm.png USAPI and Virgin Islands: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm_pg2.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Midwest Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Much of the area saw at least a one category improvement in the drought as of April 9th. A large spring storm brought copious amounts of precipitation (rain/snow) on April 2-3 with the heaviest precipitation totals across northeast Wisconsin. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 7 am EDT April 9, 2024. Note: some OCONUS offices (i.e. Guam and Pago Pago) may not have access to change maps. You can hide this slide, and discuss recent drought changes on slide 1 if you wish. Feel free to use other timescales if they tell a better story, or hide this slide if there’s no notable changes in your region. 4 weeks is a good default if you’re producing this product ~once per month as required by the directive. 1-Week Monitor Class Change (replace CHS with your WFO ID): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_1W.png Comparison of current drought monitor with drought monitor from 4 weeks ago for a desired WFO station: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_4W.png Changing date: Replace where it says “current” twice with the date in terms of “YYYYMMDD” Ex; July 5th, 2022 → 20220705 Precipitation Totals and Anomalies Over the Last Month Precipitation After well below normal precipitation and snowfall during the winter into the first half of March, precipitation totals have been running well above normal since the middle of March across much of the area. The greatest above normal departures from normal are across northeast and east-central Wisconsin. Precipitation was running a little bit below normal across central Wisconsin. Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for Wisconsin Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for Wisconsin Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending April 10, 2024 THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED. The time frame used and precipitation source can be different, but you must include this slide. If longer-term drought is dominating in your region, you can use longer-timescale imagery to support that message. All data can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?maps=ACISClimateMaps If you prefer a higher resolution precip source such as AHPS (https://water.weather.gov/precip/), that’s also okay but will have to be added manually each time. If little to no imagery is available for your area (i.e. USAPI) you may consider a data table. Some USAPI precipitation imagery available here:https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202303#regional-usapi and here: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update Pacific Island Climate Update for ENSO: Monthly Reports, find the link to the latest PDF on this site: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update and consider linking to it here if it’s not too out of date MSWEP: https://www.gloh2o.org/mswep/ may be another option. Other options: Precipitation Station Data from USGS: Stations in each State: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/al/nwis/current/?type=precip&group_key=NONE To change state, alter link where it says “/al/” and change to desired state’s abbreviation. Homepage: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis Precipitation Reports for Basins from WCC Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BPrecip_8_2022.pdf Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Temperature Anomalies Over the Last Month Temperature Temperatures were running well above normal into the latter half of March, however since then temperatures were generally running near or below normal on most days. Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Wisconsin Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Wisconsin Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending April 10, 2024 Abnormal warmth or coolness can play a role in the rate of evaporation and thus accelerate or slow drought development and spread. If you feel this is currently playing a role, you can include this slide, otherwise leave it skipped. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The recent above normal precipitation and snowfall have to led to the replenishment of rivers and lakes. Agricultural Impacts The top soil moisture has quickly gone from very dry to wetter than normal over the past three weeks. Fire Hazard Impacts Fire level is low to moderate for the next week. Other Impacts The lack of snow this winter has impacted winter tourism across northern Wisconsin which depends on the seasonal snowfall. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED Briefly summarize known impacts and mitigation actions here for each of the categories. If there are no known impacts, you may state that. If you’d like to include more information and images by sector, feel free to utilize any of the following four slides you wish, but they are NOT required. You may also link in the slide to your state’s USDM State Impact page: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/StateImpacts.aspx Also can optionally include any mitigation actions being taken, i.e. local water use restrictions. If none known, perhaps refer users to their local municipalities for more info. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts River levels have risen substantially since mid-March due to the recent rain and snow. The greatest changes were noted from the Fox Valley northeast through Green Bay into Door County. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid April 10, 2024 You may consider the following (scroll down for options): For western states, snow water information A table with current reservoir & lake levels/storage Groundwater info Soil moisture (can also be included in agricultural impacts section) Streamflow data from USGS https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/ - USE THE HUC MAPS PLEASE! This can be set to auto-update for a single timescale (7 day avg streamflow is often a good option, all you’d need to do is change the ‘tx’ at the end of the link in the app to your state ID in lower case) HYDROLOGICAL STATUS (Be sure to mention the source of the impact that’s being cited) Streamflow USGS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Geography Availability: United States State: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Use drop down menu to change state on website (excluding Pacific Islands) Pacific Islands: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/gu/nwis/rt Water-Resources Region Date Real-Time (To access any of the time series below, hover cursor over “Current Streamflow” on the left side of the website. Other time scales not available for Pacific Islands) Yesterday 7-Day 14-Day 28-Day Month Homepage: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=ww Soil Moisture Drought.gov: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture Geography Availability: CONUS National Date Daily Homepage: https://www.drought.gov/ Groundwater USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=gw&group_key=state_cd Geography: Availability: United States Use drop-down menu called “Geographic Area” to access area desired. Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ Reservoir and Lake Levels USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=lake&group_key=state_cd Geography Availability: United States Stations separated by state Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ WCC Reservoir Storage: Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BRes_8_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date: Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ SnowPack WCC Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BSnow_6_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted Homepage https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Agricultural Impacts The crop moisture index in mid-March was abnormally dry has gone into the abnormally moist to wet category during the first half of April. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid April 9, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending April 6, 2024 If you have notable images of agricultural impacts and permission to share them, they can be included on this slide. Consider linking to crop and weather reports or other resources. National resources: NASS crop progress reports: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Other.aspx Percentage of various crops affected by drought: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Home.aspx table: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2 Regional resource for the midwest: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/U2U/ Fire Hazard Impacts The potential for wildfires has been reduced considerably over the past two weeks due to the recent heavy precipitation and snowfall. The Significant Wildland Fire Potential for May is near normal across northeast Wisconsin and across the state. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for May 2024 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Wisconsin Fire Danger Map If using this slide: Please limit to 2 total images per slide. NICC outlook maps are set to auto-update. New maps are produced on the first weekday of each month (see direct links below) Can also include Burn Ban info here If your area or state has other parameters available (i.e KBDI, ERC, etc) you can add these as well. 1-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png 2-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month2_outlook.png 3-Month:https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month3_outlook.png 4-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month4_outlook.png Homepage: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall totals on April 11 into April 12 will generally run from 0.10 to 0.30 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will bring additional rainfall, which could be heavy at times, Tuesday into Wednesday. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday April 11 through Thursday 18 Use a polygon to highlight your region if using this WPC QPF map. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The climate models are indicating a greater chance for above normal temps to continue for the rest of April. The climate models were not showing a clear trend in above, near or below normal precipitation. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid 04 2024 Optional Slide to set up/support outlook slide 14. Choose one timescale with the most relevant drought message (monthly or seasonal) and move the corresponding outlook images/captions onto the slide. Move the other images off slide, but do not delete! Make sure you edit the caption box to match the image. There are multiple versions of the Monthly outlooks here because it is issued once on the 3rd thursday of each month and then updated on the final day of each month. Monthly Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Seasonal Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html USAPI: Can consider including imagery from NMME, C3S, BOM and NIWA if appropriate and useful, but can use this on slide 13 to support drought outlook message since there’s no official CPC outlook for your region. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The climate models are indicating a greater chance for above normal temps to continue during the May through July period. The climate models were not showing a clear trend in above, near or below normal precipitation from May through July period. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid 04 2024 Optional Slide to set up/support outlook slide 14. Choose one timescale with the most relevant drought message (monthly or seasonal) and move the corresponding outlook images/captions onto the slide. Move the other images off slide, but do not delete! Make sure you edit the caption box to match the image. There are multiple versions of the Monthly outlooks here because it is issued once on the 3rd thursday of each month and then updated on the final day of each month. Monthly Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Seasonal Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html USAPI: Can consider including imagery from NMME, C3S, BOM and NIWA if appropriate and useful, but can use this on slide 13 to support drought outlook message since there’s no official CPC outlook for your region. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to persist across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin into the summer. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released on March 31, 2024 valid for April 1 to June 30, 2024 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook THIS SLIDE IS REQUIRED Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.