Drought Information Statement for Central and Northeast Wisconsin Valid October 31, 2024 Issued By: WFO Green Bay, WI Contact Information: nws.greenbay@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 7, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/grb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-midwest-2024-04-25 Severe (D2) to Moderate (D1) drought continues across north-central and northeast Wisconsin. Some improvement in drought conditions are expected next week due to the recent heavy rain on October 30-31 that was not factored into the drought categories this week. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for [region] Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Continues generally north and east of a line from Lac Du Flambeau to Rhinelander to east of Merrill to Green Bay to Two Creeks. D1 (Moderate Drought): Continues generally south and west of a line from Lac Du Flambeau to Rhinelander to east of Merrill to Green Bay to Two Creeks. Some improvement in the drought category is likely on the November 7th Drought Monitor due to the recent heavy rain. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for [region] Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Drought continued to worsen over the last few months, especially in September and October across the entire region. Rainfall totals from August through October 29th were from 30 to 60 percent of normal at many locations across northeast WI. Some of the lowest percent of normal values include: Ephraim 27%, Argonne 30%, Crivitz High Falls 31%, Sturgeon Bay 33%, Oconto 39% and Florence 44%. The percent of normal values were higher over the remainder of the area due to some higher rainfall totals in August. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches were noted on October 30-31 which will be incorporated in the drought trends next week. No Change: Far NE WI. Precipitation The percent of normal values over the last month were lowest across north-central and northeast Wisconsin. Only a few spots in portions of central and east were closer to normal. These maps do not incorporate the heavy rain that fell on October 30-31. Temperature The 7 day (left image) and the 30 day temperature (right image) continued to show temperatures running 4F to 8F above normal. Temperatures this weekend into next week will be closer to normal compared to the last few days (Oct 29-30), but will remain at least a few degrees above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The rivers across north-central and far northeast WI are running well below normal through October 29th, however heavy rainfall fell across portions of central into northeast Wisconsin on October 30-31 that should cause rivers to rise. Agricultural Impacts There should be minimal impacts to agricultural interest since the main growing season is coming to an end. If the drought continues, it could impact the winter wheat yields. Fire Hazard Impacts Recent heavy rain and cooler weather has diminished the risk of wildfires into early November. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. If you plan on burning, please check the Wisconsin DNR website for any bans on burning. https://apps.dnr.wi.gov/wisburn/#/ Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Rivers across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin are running well below normal through October 29. Some improvement in river levels are expected into early next week across central and portions of northeast WI. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches fell on October 30-31 which will be incorporated into the graphics next week. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid 10 31 2024 Agricultural Impacts Well below normal rainfall in August through the latter half of October has led to significant deficits in soil moisture across northern Wisconsin, generally north of Highway 10. Some improvement in soil moisture is expected next week across central and northeast Wisconsin where 1 to 2 inches of rain fell on October 30-31. Fire Hazard Impacts The risk of wildland fires is lower in November due to the recent rainfall on the last two days of October (some snow up north on Oct 31). Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Wisconsin Fire Danger Map Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A bulk of the rainfall depicted on the graphic occurred on Oct 30-31. Additional rain is expected again next week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Looking out for the next two weeks suggests that only minor changes in drought conditions across north-central and northeast WI. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage There are greater chances for above normal temperatures during November. The climate models indicated a nearly equal chance of above, below or near normal precipitation during November. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to persist through late fall, and possibly into early winter. There is a lot of uncertainty on how the drought conditions will evolve over the next month. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook