Drought Information Statement for Micronesia Valid October 10, 2025 Issued By: WFO Guam Contact Information: nws.gum.operations@noaa.gov Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State is now in Severe (D2) Drought. This product will be updated October 23, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gum/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Dry conditions have developed near the Equator, affecting Kapingamarangi, as La Niña conditions/pattern develops. Most of Micronesia is drought-free, with some abnormally dry conditions in the far northern RMI. The shift to dry season will evolve in the coming months, likely starting with areas north of 11N-12N and continuing near the Equator. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity: D2 (Severe Drought): Pohnpei State: Kapingamarangi. D0 (Abnormally Dry): Marshall Islands: Utirik & nearby islands/atolls. Insufficient Data: Yap State: Ulithi Chuuk State: Fananu Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Micronesia and the rest of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Rainfall During the Last 30 Days Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) The past 30 days, rainfall has been near normal from Palau to western Chuuk State, with above normal rainfall from Chuuk Lagoon to the central Marshall Islands, all mainly between 4N and 11N. However, developing La Niña pattern is leading to drier conditions near the Equator, with the potential development of significant tropical cyclones also more favored in the Philippine Sea and closer to the Asian continent, beginning the trend to drier conditions in the northern Marianas and RMI. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Reports from Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State reveal that public and private water tank levels are decreasing. Most public tanks around 85% full, while 89% of private tanks are 22% full and the other 11% are 50% full. Agricultural Impacts At Kapingamarangi, the browning of trees and vegetation are coming in and showing that dry conditions since mid-August are starting to take a toll on local agriculture. Fire Hazard Impacts None reported at this time. Mitigation Actions Monitor water levels. Islands or atolls with a shallow water lens, or rely on water catchments, are sensitive to quick onsets of drought. Follow any water conservation procedures that are shared by local authorities. Preparedness Actions Residents should report any agricultural and hydrologic impacts to local DCOs and WSOs, particularly during prolonged periods of drier weather as the region begins to enter typical dry season over the next few months. Reports from the islands are critical for decision-making and government responses. Drought Outlook Short-Term (1-3 Week Outlook) Current tropical activity northwest of the Marianas is helping to pull monsoon flow into far western Micronesia, while in the short-term, a trough extending from near the Marianas into central Yap State will increase showers in both locations. The monsoon pattern is expected to weaken as current tropical activity moves away from the region, allowing a gentle trade-wind pattern to develop across Chuuk to the RMI, covering most of central and eastern Micronesia. While enhanced divergence aloft in the maritime continent generally favors TC activity in the West Pacific (extending from the Marianas Islands west across the Philippines), ensemble models are leaning towards anomalously low expected precipitation over the next 1-2 weeks due to the trade-wind pattern. See CPC - Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for more info. Seasonal (3 Month Outlook) La Niña conditions have emerged and is favored to through the Northern Hemisphere winter, though in a weak state. This favors drier conditions along the equator and north of 11N-12N east of 145E. Wetter pattern east of 145E. These trends are typical, but not guaranteed. The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook can be found on the CPC homepage Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)