Drought Information Statement for Micronesia 
Valid October 24, 2025
Issued By: WFO Guam
Contact Information: nws.gum.operations@noaa.gov
Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State is now in Severe (D2) Drought.
This product will be updated November 6, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gum/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Dry conditions have developed near the Equator, affecting Kapingamarangi, as La Niña conditions/pattern develops. 
Most of Micronesia is drought-free, with some abnormally dry conditions in the far northern RMI.
The shift to dry season will evolve in the coming months, likely starting with areas north of 11N-12N and continuing near the Equator.
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U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought Intensity:


D2 (Severe Drought): 
Pohnpei State: Kapingamarangi.

D0 (Abnormally Dry): 
Marshall Islands: Utirik & nearby islands/atolls.

Insufficient Data:
Yap State: Ulithi
Chuuk State: Fananu


Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Micronesia and the rest of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

Rainfall During the Last 30 Days
Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
The past 30 days, rainfall has been near to slightly above normal for most islands between 4N and 11N, with trends to normal to slightly below normal north of 11N

Current La Niña pattern is supporting drier conditions near the Equator, with the potential development of significant tropical cyclones also more favored in the Philippine Sea and closer to the Asian continent, beginning the trend to drier conditions in the northern Marianas and RMI.


Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter

Hydrologic Impacts
Reports from Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State reveal that public and private water tank levels are decreasing. As of Oct 15th report, private (personal) tanks are below 30% capacity and public tanks (used as backup) are still near capacity.

Agricultural Impacts
At Kapingamarangi, the browning of trees and vegetation are coming in and showing that dry conditions since mid-August are starting to take a toll on local agriculture.

Fire Hazard Impacts
None reported at this time.

Mitigation Actions
Monitor water levels. Islands or atolls with a shallow water lens, or rely on water catchments, are sensitive to quick onsets of drought. Follow any water conservation procedures that are shared by local authorities.

Preparedness Actions
Residents should report any agricultural and hydrologic impacts to local DCOs and WSOs, particularly during prolonged periods of drier weather as the region begins to enter typical dry season over the next few months.

Reports from the islands are critical for decision-making and government responses.

Drought Outlook
Short-Term (1-3 Week Outlook)

Current active trade-wind/ITCZ pattern is helping to promote normal to slightly above normal rainfall across most of Micronesia between 4N and 11N. Most Ensemble models support the Madden-Julian Oscillation propagating eastward, with the enhanced convective phase crossing the Maritime Continent and then into the Northwest Pacific over the next 2 weeks, increasing the potential for above average rainfall in the region. The MJO, along with the base weak La Niña state, will favor tropical cyclone development in the vicinity of the Philippines or over the South China Sea.

Near the Equator, rainfall amounts will be lower, with totals of 3 inches or less over the next 2 weeks, and possibly less than 1 inch. This fits well with the expected La Niña conditions.

See CPC - Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for more info.

Seasonal (3 Month Outlook)

La Niña conditions have emerged and are favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter, though in a weak state. This favors drier conditions along the Equator and north of

11N-12N east of 150E. Wetter pattern west of 150E. 

Areas between 4N and 11N are favored to be near to above normal for rainfall.

These trends are typical, but not guaranteed.
 
The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook can be found on the CPC homepage
Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)