Drought Information Statement for Micronesia Valid November 21, 2025 Issued By: WFO Guam Contact Information: nws.gum.operations@noaa.gov Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State remains in Severe (D2) Drought. This product will be updated December 4, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gum/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. La Niña conditions continue to support drier conditions along the Equator, east of 150E, keeping Kapingamarangi in Severe (D2) Drought. Rest of Micronesia is drought-free due to active Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Near Equatorial Trough (NET). The shift to dry season will evolve in the coming months, starting with areas north of 11N-12N and continuing near the Equator. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity: D2 (Severe Drought): Pohnpei State: Kapingamarangi Insufficient Data: RMI: Kwajalein Pohnpei State: Pingelap Chuuk State: Fananu Yap State: Ulithi Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Micronesia and the rest of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Rainfall During the Last 30 Days Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) The past 30 days, rainfall has been near to above normal for most islands between 4N and 11N, with below normal rainfall north of 11N and near the Equator east of 150E. This rainfall pattern indicates that the far northern RMI near and north of 11-12N is beginning a transition into a seasonal dry season pattern. The monsoon trough has transitioned into a near equatorial trough (NET) in western Micronesia as westerly winds near the Equator no longer extend back into southeast Asia, but remain along the Equator west of 130E, supported by the weakening Madden-Julian Oscillation. La Niña pattern continues to support drier conditions near the Equator, east of 150E, with the potential development of significant tropical cyclones favored in the Philippine Sea and closer to the Asian continent. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts An update from Kapingamarangi (sent November 21st) reported that private (personal) tanks are 70% full, while public tanks (used as backup) are 80% full. Agricultural Impacts At Kapingamarangi, trees and vegetation are still yellow, showing that dry conditions since mid-August continue to take a toll on local agriculture. Fire Hazard Impacts None reported at this time. Mitigation Actions Monitor water levels. Islands or atolls with a shallow water lens, or relying on water catchments, are sensitive to quick onsets of drought. Follow any water conservation procedures that are shared by local authorities. Preparedness Actions Residents should report any agricultural and hydrologic impacts to local DCOs and WSOs, particularly during prolonged periods of drier weather as the region begins to enter typical dry season over the next few months. Reports from the islands are critical for decision-making and government responses. Drought Outlook Short-Term (1-3 Week Outlook) An active Intertropical Convergence Zone across eastern Micronesia is helping to keep near to above normal rainfall between 4N and 11N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), along with the base weak La Niña state, will favor tropical cyclone development in the vicinity of the Philippines or over the South China Sea and a wetter pattern across western Micronesia. However, the destructive interference between the MJO and the La Niña base state may continue to weaken the MJO or relax the La Niña induced enhanced trade wind regime. Near the Equator and north of 11-12N, especially east of 150E, drier than normal conditions are expected to continue. However, ensemble models are starting to show a positive precip. anomaly near Kapingamarangi over the next 7-14 days, suggesting the potential for increased rainfall due to the NET. See CPC - Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for more info. Seasonal (3 Month Outlook) La Niña conditions have emerged and are favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026. This supports the weaker dry signal for Kapingamarangi in C3S and NMME guidance. These trends are typical, but not guaranteed. The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook can be found on the CPC homepage Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)