Drought Information Statement for Micronesia Valid December 5, 2025 Issued By: WFO Guam Contact Information: nws.gum.operations@noaa.gov Kapingamarangi in southern Pohnpei State has improved to Moderate (D1) Drought. This will be the last update. This product will resume once Severe (D2) Drought or higher occurs. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gum/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. La Niña pattern has weakened as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagated eastward over the Western Pacific during the past week, increased convection off the equator late November. Kapingamarangi has improved to Moderate (D1) Drought, with most of Micronesia remaining drought-free due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Near Equatorial Trough (NET). Areas north of 11N-12N (northern RMI and Mariana Islands) are starting to transition into their seasonal dry trade-wind pattern. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity: D1 (Moderate Drought): Pohnpei State: Kapingamarangi D0 (Abnormally Dry): Marianas: Saipan RMI: Utirik Insufficient Data: Pohnpei State: Pingelap Chuuk State: Fananu Yap State: Ulithi Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Micronesia and the rest of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Rainfall During the Last 30 Days Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) The past 30 days, rainfall has been near to above normal for most islands between 4N and 11N, with below normal rainfall north of 11N and near the Equator east of 160E. This rainfall pattern indicates that the far northern RMI near and north of 11-12N is beginning the transition into a seasonal dry trade-wind pattern. The Near Equatorial trough (NET) in western Micronesia, with westerly winds near the Equator, continued to support a wetter pattern across Palau, Yap and Chuuk, and increased rainfall around Kapingamarangi. La Niña pattern has weakened as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagated eastward over the Western Pacific during the past week, supporting convective anomalies off the equator during late November. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts An update from Kapingamarangi (sent November 21st) reported that private (personal) tanks are 70% full, while public tanks (used as backup) are 80% full. Agricultural Impacts At Kapingamarangi, trees and vegetation are still yellow, showing that dry conditions since mid-August continue to take a toll on local agriculture, but recent rainfall over the past 2 weeks will help to improve dry conditions for at least the short term. Fire Hazard Impacts None reported at this time. Mitigation Actions Monitor water levels. Islands or atolls with a shallow water lens, or relying on water catchments, are sensitive to quick onsets of drought. Follow any water conservation procedures that are shared by local authorities. Preparedness Actions Residents should report any agricultural and hydrologic impacts to local DCOs and WSOs, particularly during prolonged periods of drier weather as the region begins to enter typical dry season over the next few months. Reports from the islands are critical for decision-making and government responses. Drought Outlook Short-Term (1-3 Week Outlook) With the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) breaking down and the NET transitioning westward, a more seasonal dry pattern is starting to emerge across Micronesia. Tropical cyclone climatology supports decreasing activity after mid-December as TC development becomes more favored in the southern hemisphere. La Niña pattern has weakened as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagated eastward over the Western Pacific during the past week. However, with uncertainty with the MJO increasing, the background La Niña conditions are expected exert more influence on overall weather patterns. See CPC - Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for more info. Seasonal (3 Month Outlook) La Niña conditions are favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026. This supports the weaker dry signal for Kapingamarangi in C3S and NMME guidance. These trends are typical, but not guaranteed. The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook can be found on the CPC homepage Graphic courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)